地震為不可預測、無法阻止的天然災害,而台灣位處於環太平洋地震帶,導致地震也成為台灣主要的天然災害之一。 地震所伴隨的災害往往造成嚴重的直接與間接災害,其所造成的損失、災害是無法準確預測的,但可確定的是,地震所造成的損失與其影響地區發展程度緊密相關的,過去的都市規劃,大多以都市發展、人口分佈、經濟效益為主要考量,而其他針對都市地震之研究多半是探討震後救災的研究以及防災的推動,如都市震災救災路線選擇模式之建構、災後都市避難空間之研究、都市防救災空間規劃之探討、地震防災發展策略與推動之研究等,鮮少有研究針對都市風險之管理架構進行探討,若將都會區的災害風險因子列入考量,將會對整體的減災策略更加完善。 因此,本研究欲建立對地震之風險分析模型,並以「台灣地震損失評估系統之資料庫」做為主要資料來源,藉由此模型劃設臺北市之風險區塊以呈現地震災害風險之程度,其區塊劃設精度為村里,本研究風險架構因子以資料完整可量化為考量,其風險因子之相對權重以層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process Theory , AHP)的概念撰寫問卷以詢問專家學者而得。風險定義為危害度×脆弱度,因而會分別產出臺北市之危害圖與脆弱圖再套疊即得到本研究風險地圖,最後達到提供相關單位做為減災參考之目的
Earthquakes, natural disasters, are unpredicatable and unavoidable. Taiwan is located in the Surrounding-Pacific scismic zone, which is the main reason why earthquakes frequently strike Taiwan. Earthquakes result in severe damage. The losses can’t be estimated accurately, however, the damage is undoubtedly highly related to the development of the affected areas. The city planning was used to focus on urban development, population distribution, and economic development. In addition, most researches on urban earthquakes explore how to provide rescues and prevent hazards. Few investigate the management of urban risks. The strategies of reducing disaster will be more practicable if the earthquake risk factors are taken into consideration. Therefore, this study aims to create a model to analyze earthquake risk. The database of “Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System(TELES)” was used as the major source in this study. The questionnaire is drawn up based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Theory(AHP) and answered by experts to figure out the weight of weighting factors. This risk model consists of hazard and vulnerability. And the factors of hazard are peak ground acceleration(PGA) and soil liquefaction. The factors of vulnerability are people, build, and property. With this model, Taipei City is divided into different risk zones. It is expected that the risk map serves as a reference for reducing disaster.
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