羽絨產業原物料價格預測模式之研究

陳玟樺

3.239.242.55，Hello！

Close
Search Quick Search Advanced Search Publication Search	Personal Service Member Login Searching History Use Bonus Card SYMSKAN
Browse Browse by University of Graduate Thesis Browse by Pinyin of Graduate Thesis Browse by Conference Proceedings Topic Browse by Conference Proceedings Publisher Browse by Pinyin of Conference Proceedings Browse by eBook Category Browse by eBook Topic Browse by eBook Publisher
Customer Services Authorize Airiti Recommend a Journal

Search Symbol (Half-width)	Description of Search Symbols
Space	"AND" indicates the intertwining of key terms used in a search
Double Quotation Marks ("") ( " " )	Double quotation marks indicate the beginning and end of a phrase, and the search will only include terms that appear in the same order of those within the quotations. Example: "image process" ： " image process "
?	Indicates a variable letter. Entering two ? will indicate two variable letters, and so on. Example: "Appl?", search results will yield apple, apply… e , appl y … ( (often used to English word searches) )
*	Indicates an unlimited number of variable letters to follow, from 1~n. Example: Enter "appl*", search results will yield apple, apples, apply, applied, application…(often used in English word searches) e , appl es , appl y , appl ied , appl ication … ( (often used to English word searches) )
AND、OR、NOT	Boolean logic combinations of key words is a skill used to expand or refine search parameters. (1) AND (1) AND: Refines search parameters (2) OR (2) OR: Expands search parameters (3) NOT: Excludes irrelevant parameters

DOI stands for Digital Object Identifier （ D igital O bject I dentifier ） ,
and is the unique identifier for objects on the internet. It can be used to create persistent link and to cite articles.

Using DOI as a persistent link

To create a persistent link, add「http://dx.doi.org/」「 http://dx.doi.org/ 」 before a DOI.
For instance, if the DOI of an article is 10.5297/ser.1201.002 , you can link persistently to the article by entering the following link in your browser: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.5297/ser.1201.002 。
The DOI link will always direct you to the most updated article page no matter how the publisher changes the document's position, avoiding errors when engaging in important research.

Cite a document with DOI

When citing references, you should also cite the DOI if the article has one. If your citation guideline does not include DOIs, you may cite the DOI link.

DOIs allow accurate citations, improve academic contents connections, and allow users to gain better experience across different platforms. Currently, there are more than 70 million DOIs registered for academic contents. If you want to understand more about DOI, please visit airiti DOI Registration （ doi.airiti.com ）。

Data Source

College of Management > Graduate Institute of Commerce Automation and Management
Social Sciences > Management

Bibliography Management Tool

Related Links

Report an Issue

Search in Library

There is no full-text available at the moment. Airiti would like to request author's authorization. I would like to provide authorization.

羽絨產業原物料價格預測模式之研究

Modeling and Forecasting the Raw Material Price in Feather Industry

陳玟樺 , Masters　　Advisor：吳忠敏　　

繁體中文

預測；原物料價格；羽絨； Forecasting ； Raw Materials Price ； Feather and Down

Abstract │ Reference (154) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

Recently, the problem of climate has been more and more serious. So the output of crop has been decreased. The supply and demand of raw materials can’t balance, so the fluctuation in materials price also been more and more violent. Companies can’t estimate their cost simply, forecasting the price of raw materials goes more and more important. With the colder winter, the products of feather which light and keep warm has been the most important product of keep warm. But the feather businesses in Taiwan have to get the raw material from oversea. If we can forecast the feather’s price of importing country, that will be a good help in finding material which cheap and fine.

This paper uses the feather and down which is popular item at cold winter as the object. Considering past studies viewpoint and using the correlation analysis to find the relative factor. Using multiple regression analysis, time-series analysis, and case-based reasoning construct the models of forecasting price of feather and down. Aiming to find the best forecasting model of feather’s price. Alos use vector autoregression to observe the relationship of variables.
    First, the results indicate that the highest at all proposed models in multiple regression analysis explained up to 72.3% of the variance from the regression as the response rate. Second, the highest at all proposed models in time-series analysis explained up to 75.7% of the variance from the regression as the response rate. Last, provide two results of case-based reasoning. This analysis can provide enterprise as reference.

Reference ( 154 ) 〈TOP〉

[2] 方明裕，整合案例式推理與倒傳遞類神經網路於新產品單機製造成本之預測~以行動電話為例，碩士論文，元智大學工業工程與管理研究所，桃園，2008。
連結：
[8] 李孝柏，羽絨產業策略規劃-應用品質機能展開分析法，碩士論文，國立中央大學工業管理研究所，桃園，2008。
連結：
[10] 李芳甄，虛擬攝影棚在臺灣電視節目製作之發展與應用，碩士論文，臺灣師範大學圖文傳播研究所，台北，2002。
連結：
[12] 李惠妍、吳宗正、溫敏杰，「迴歸模式與類神經網路台股指數期貨預測之研究」，經營管理論叢，第2期，2006，第83-99頁。
連結：
[17] 林茂文，時間序列分析與預測:管理與財經之應用，第三版，台北：華泰文化事業股份有限公司，2006。
連結：

Altmetrics

〈TOP〉

E-mail ：

When an article is available to download, a notice will be sent to your mailbox address.

E-mail ：