臺灣鐵路路線因地形高差變化大影響,早期工程技術、材料及機械限制,路線係配合地形選線佈設,坡度陡、彎道急,線形極為不佳,導致路線較長速度無法提升。近年來政府為增進臺鐵客貨運輸能量,提升速度及營運服務品質,積極推動捷運化、快捷化及電氣化等計畫,進行闢建支線、區段截彎取直及路線曲線半徑改善等工程,而面臨路線選線問題與抉擇。由於鐵路建設所涉及層面廣泛,除與運輸、技術、環境及經濟層面息息相關外,屬複雜性、衝突性及競合之決策,且投資成本龐大,對於路線範圍未來發展影響甚大,亦對鐵路營運成本、速度、運量有許多關聯性及重要性,因此為避免決策不當引起爭議,有待建立一套客觀周延的評選模式極為重要,期能評選出最適路線方案。 本研究首先探討現行鐵路選線問題與評估方法,並針對評估準則進行問卷調查及建立完整的資料後,應用多準則決策分析(MCDM)的觀念,初步篩選出可行方案後先以戴爾菲層級分析法(DAHP),建立評估準則層級架構及求取相對權重,再利用模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory)求解語意變數量化值,最後運用理想解趨近法( TOPSIS)進行可行方案之排序,並透過敏感度分析(SA)進行方案排序之穩定性,建構提出一套鐵路路線最適方案之評選模式,並以「北宜直線鐵路路線方案」實例驗證,確認最適方案之可行性,提供後續推動建設決策之參考。
In previous of Taiwan railway, it was difficult to select better railway line due to the limits of low technology, poor materials and machinery, and the characteristics of complex environment and terrain, such as land height difference, steep slope, and sharp turn. Therefore, it lead the train cannot run faster in Taiwan. As the development of technology and improvement of vehicles, Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA), MOTC build new branch railways, straighten the bend lines, alter the radius of curved lines which are also accompanied with rapid-transportation and electrified railway systems. Thus, TRA has to decide to adapt the optimum railway lines. The construction work of railways includes various elements such as transportation purposes, technology abilities, environment issues, and economy. It is very important to establish a complete optimum selection mode to avoid any controversies that may be ascribed to the cost of investment and operation and the influence of areas along the railways are tremendous. First, the discussion on the current problems of research of line selection and assessment method, then a poll survey based on assessment criteria to collect a complete data, and adapt MCDM concept to analyze the data and choose the scheme. Succeeding, the study analyzes the scheme by using DAHP Analysis to establish estimate structure, applying Fuzzy Theory to quantify the data, and array the order for these schemes by TOPSIS. Finally, to achieving specimen stability requires experiment by Sensibility Analysis to establish the Optimum Selection Mode. The study is verified for its optimum feasibility by the Experiment of Taipei-Ilan Railway Straight line Project, and the mode could be applied for projects in future.
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