本研究利用工業污染源複合擴散模式(ISCST3)模擬評估B燃煤發電廠更新擴建後對於A縣市空氣品質之影響,並評估其於人體健康危害之風險度,其中以A縣市中兩處敏感受體點(坐落於污染源下風處)及參考點為代表性區域。研究結果得知,懸浮微粒(PM10)因盛行風向經大氣擴散後於電廠西南部有最大著地濃度,日平均值著地濃度最大模擬增量為3.746μg/m3,年平均為0.769μg/m3;敏感受體點1之年平均最大增量濃度為0.141μg/m3;敏感受體點2之年平均最大增量濃度為0.146μg/m3,並且各敏感受體點和參考點之逐月預估濃度值差異不大,皆符合空氣品質標準及其空氣污染防制區之容許增量限值,故對於A縣市整體空氣品質影響衝擊不大,就未來管制措施上持續監測A縣市之空氣品質,以確保A縣市居民的生活品質及健康。此外,本研究假設地表上的空氣當中未含重金屬,懸浮微粒(PM10)之最大著地濃度中所含的鉛、鎘、汞量即為地表上空氣中最大的鉛、鎘、汞濃度(μg/m3),結果得知敏感受體點及參考點之最大著地鉛、鎘、汞濃度值對於A縣市影響程度很小,環境風險程度低;本研究再根據美國環保署訂定之人體健康風險評估計算方法評估重金屬鉛,可得知估算出之男性與女性成人終身的致癌風險值分別為1.588×10-11以及1.671×10-11,皆小於1.0×10-6 (因終身可接受的致癌風險值設定為1.0×10-6 ),則可表示暴露於該種條件下因而產生癌症的可能性,於男性與女性成人一生中幾乎不可能發生,且其風險值較低,對於人體身體健康之危害性較小。
To assess environment risk, the ISCST3 model was used to evaluate impact of air quality on county A for the capacity loading extension of coal-fired power station B in this study. Were selscted as representative sites, two sensitive receptors (located on the downwind pollution) and two reference points in county A. Because of prevailing wind direction the result that the maximum daily average and annual average ground concentration of PM10 are 3.746μg/m3 and 0.769μg/m3. There are located in the southwest of power station by atmospheric dispersion. The maximum annual average increment concentration of the sensitive point 1 is 0.141μg/m3 and the sensitive point 2 is 0.146μg/m3. The estimated concentration each month of the sensitive receptors and reference points are not different greatly. Both of them are in compliance with air quality standards and permissible incremental limits of the air pollution control district so there is less impact for the overall air quality on county A. In the future control measures, monitoring air quality on county A continually can make sure resident health risk and the quality of life on county A. Moreover, it is assumed that there are not heavy metals in the air on the ground in this study. So Pb Cd and Hg in the maximum ground concentration of PM10 is the maximum ground concentration of Pb Cd and Hg in the air on the ground. The result shows that the maximum ground concentration of Pb Cd and Hg in sensitive receptors and reference points are not more than background concentration and hence there is no obviously environmental risk for county A. In this study, according to human health risk assessment methods by the U.S. EPA determined to evaluate Pb. It can be estimated that the lifetime cancer risk values of the male and female adult were 1.588 × 10-11 and 1.671 × 10-11. Both of them are less than 1.0 × 10-6 (acceptable lifetime cancer risk value is set to 1.0 × 10-6). So it can show that exposure to the kinds of conditions resulting in the possibility of cancer in life of male and female adult is almost impossible and lower risk. It is less harmful for human health.