住宅政策與房價影響關係之研究

The Research of Relationship Between Housing Policy and Housing Price

張書誠(SHU-CHENG,JHANG)

指導教授 ： 林正平

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

以系統動態學（system dynamics）建立我國住宅市場模型，由外在經濟變化、人口結構、政府政策為主，就近期政府推行之住宅政策為基礎，對民眾購屋房價進行分析。討論近年來國家住宅政策對於補助民眾購屋所提供之優惠補助，給予政府在未來制定住宅政策時的參考。
本研究以政府住宅政策所可能提供之方向，以改變供給、貸款貼補、購屋補助做為情境模擬之方向，以系統動態學模擬民眾交易住宅時房價造成的變化。三項變數房價呈現相關性，將來政府可於需對房價進行調控時針對當時市場環境，選擇一項變數做為調控。從民國九十年至民國九十五年我國市場環境在人口成長趨緩與家戶所得支出拉近的狀況下，房價仍是呈現成長狀況；而在模擬利率由高轉低的狀況觀察房價變化，可推論近年房價波動乃受優惠房貸政策所影響。

關鍵字

房價 ； 住宅政策 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

I build up the market model of residence through system dynamic which focus on outside economy variety, the policy of the population structure, government policy. Based on the residence policy residence policy that the government released recently, I analyze the housing price I am here discussing the subsidization of house purchasing that offered by the government in recent years. This research may provide the government the direction residence policy using the changing of the supply, the subsidize, and the subsidy of house purchasing to simulate the variety that the building price for people to trade residence causes by system dynamic state. We can see the connectivity between three of the elements and housing price. Therefore, if government needs to control the housing price according to the environment, it can choose one element. From the Year of The Republic of China 90 to 95, the income of household and the slowdown of the growing of the population, the housing price is still growing. When simulating the rates that have decreased, we may infer that the change of the housing price is result from the police of subsidy.

並列關鍵字

housing price ； housing policy ； system dynamics

參考文獻

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