地下自來水管線地震災害之定量風險分析

The Quantitative Risk Analysis of Buried Water Pipelines on Earthquake Disasters

徐永縉(Yun-Chin Hsu)

指導教授 ： 施邦築

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

台灣地區因位於環太平洋地震帶上，地震作用頻繁，且地震發生時具有不可預測且瞬間摧毀之特性，故常導致國人生命以及財產的損失。地下自來水線管線系統為都市發展之重要建設，但易受地震損壞，且震災後檢測修復不易，往往僅部分受損，即導致整個輸水系統功能喪失。故本研究結合定量風險分析技術進行地下自來水管線之耐震安全評估，據以提昇地下自來水管線在耐震、檢測、修復以及其可靠性。
本研究針對地下自來水管線受震災行為與管線設計進行探討，並參考國內外受震後地下自來水管線破壞資料。透過事件樹分析方法邏輯推演，以喪失輸水功能為前提，列出震災後地下自來水管線可能發生之事件；並以故障樹分析方法對各失敗事件之可能肇因作探討，分析其風險因子，最終以此定量風險分析流程得到各破壞事件之發生機率。依本研究分析結果可得地震發生時地盤破壞機率約為7.375e-4、人孔破壞機率約為8.473e-4、普通地盤之管路破壞機率約9.915e-4，為此提供相關數據作為日後震災情形之參考，據以提升管線之耐震及災後緊急應變能力。

關鍵字

定量風險分析 ； 地下自來水管線 ； 耐震評估

並列摘要

Taiwan is located on the Circum-Pacific Ocean Earthquake Zone, earthquake hazard is inevitable and frequent. Earthquake events, not predictable up to now, sometimes cause huge casualty and property loss instantly. Water supply pipeline system is very important for urban living and development, but it is prone to earthquake damages; moreover, damage inspecting and restoration is quite difficult right after a major earthquake disaster. More important, even only some parts of a pipeline network are damaged, the whole water supply function could be interrupted. Thus, this research focused on the seismic quantitative risk analysis for buried water supply pipelines.
This thesis first studied the pipeline design pattern and its earthquake damage behavior by referring to the domestic and foreign references. Considering the loss of water supplying function, this study applied event tree and fault tree as a logic inference. Possible seismic damage patterns were listed as an event tree and then their corresponding estimated failure probability was considered as a fault tree. The risk estimation was thus being carried out quantitatively. From the calculated results, it showed that the damage probabilities caused by stratum failure, manhole failure, and pipe breaking are 7.4e-4, 8.5e-4, and 9.9e-4, respectively. The methodology and result of this thesis might be applicable to improve the counter-seismic capability for a water supply system.

並列關鍵字

Quantitative Risk Analysis ； Buried Water Pipeline ； Seismic Assessment

參考文獻

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