供水系統地震災害之風險分析

Risk Analysis of Seismic Hazard on Water Supply Systems

胡馨文(Shin-Wen Hu)

指導教授 ： 施邦築

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/土木與防災研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

自來水供水系統為民眾不可或缺之重要基礎設施，從上游水庫取水設施至下游配水系統呈現環環相扣之型態，倘若因地震破壞影響其中一個環節，可能會影響設施的使用機能或使整個供水系統停頓，造成都市生活機能癱瘓，因此本研究擬結合定量風險分析技術(事件樹、故障樹)進行供水系統之風險評估。
本研究以大台北地區供水系統為例，針對地震後區域自來水供水系統進行情境分析，探討震後區域供水受影響情形。本研究利用定量風險分析之方法，以喪失輸水功能為前提，以事件樹依供水順序分析各運作階段中之可能失敗事件，本研究以「原水輸送系統失敗」、「清水輸送系統失敗」、「配水輸送系統失敗」、「震後應變供水失敗」等四個主要事件，並各自建立其故障樹，透過可能造成供水系統失敗的各種因素(如：硬體破壞、環境影響、人為操作不當等)加以分析，並繪製各故障樹圖，從而確定供水系統失效原因之各種可能的關聯性，以便採取相對之防範措施，並可提供相關單位作為規劃、決策、執行之參考。

關鍵字

供水系統 ； 定量風險分析 ； 震後災損分析

並列摘要

Water supply system is an indispensable infrastructure to the public. Its components, from the upstream of intake facilities to the downstream of distributing pipelines are closely related to each other. If one component is destroyed by an earthquake, that might influence the whole water supply system and paralyze the urban living functions. This study tried to combine the Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques (event tree analysis and fault tree analysis) to assess the seismic risk of water supply systems.
This study took the Taipei water supply system as a case study, and focused on the seismic scenario analysis and its effects after a major earthquake event. Based on the interruption of water supply in the aftermath of the earthquake, this study applied the Quantitative Risk Analysis techniques and analysis its possible failure events at each operating phase of water supply in order to establish its event tree analysis. Therefore, this study employed 'the failure of raw water transportation system', 'the failure of clean water transportation system', 'the failure of distributing water system', and 'the failure of response in the aftermath of an earthquake' as four major events and then established individually their corresponding fault trees.
By considering various factors which might cause the failure of a water supply system, such as devastation of facilities, inadequate environmental effects, improper mankind operations…and so on, this study created pictures of fault trees and found their correlations between each failure factors. The results could provide planning and decision making countermeasures for earthquake events to the related authorities.

並列關鍵字

Water Supply Systems ； Quantitative Risk Analysis ； Earthquake Loss Analysis

參考文獻

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