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  • 學位論文

登革熱的時空分析-以巴基斯坦為例

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Dengue Fever in Pakistan

指導教授 : Shabbir Syed Abdul
共同指導教授 : 徐建業 莊定武(Ting-Wu Chuang)

摘要


本研究主要集中在“巴基斯坦登革熱的時空分析”。登革熱正在影響熱帶和亞熱帶國家的主要人口。南亞地區成為世界主要人口的主要地區,也是登革熱的危險地區,包括巴基斯坦在內的幾個國家尤其嚴重。巴基斯坦在90年代開始出現登革熱,自2006年以來成為重大問題。 2011年發生疫情最多的地區有二萬多人受感染。目前還沒有足夠的研究在巴基斯坦登革熱,甚至已經做了大部分重點是登革熱病人的臨床特徵。只有少數研究討論了氣候因素,即溫度,降雨,濕度和風速對巴基斯坦登革熱傳播的影響。 本研究針對旁遮普省36個地區的2006 - 2014年登革熱監測數據進行分析,從巴基斯坦氣象局(PMD)取得溫度,降雨量,濕度和風速以及月度數據並研究對於其對登革熱傳播的影響。為了計算發病率,從旁遮普統計局抽取了相同時期各區的人口數。除了上述外,本研究還將詳細介紹2013年斯瓦特區登革熱疫情。 本研究的目的包含1)確定旁遮普邦登革熱的時空趨勢和分佈,2)確定氣候參數對於旁遮普邦登革熱傳播的影響,並找出天氣數據與登革熱病例數據之間的相關性,以及3)確定導致2013年斯瓦特突然發生登革熱的地理危險因素。本研究使用時間序列分析將登革熱病例數量進行空間和時間分析。 本研究使用Arc GIS 10.2 軟體將每年的地理位置登革熱的發病率視覺化。顯示旁遮普省36個地區每年的登革熱發病率,以及登革熱的擴散模式。它還涉及斯瓦特地區登革熱的空間分佈,時空聚類和擴散模式,以及2013年在斯瓦特地區登革熱暴發的地理風險圖。我們已經應用追溯時空掃描統計來識別純粹的空間和時空聚類。地理加權回歸(GWR)用於解釋海拔,人口密度和離最近水體距離的影響。這是巴基斯坦北部高地未來爆發的跡象,不符合蚊子的適用範圍。巴基斯坦最近因氣候變化遇到各種自然災害,包括洪水和熱浪,可能會增加登革熱的傳播風險。

並列摘要


This thesis research is mainly focusing on “Spatio-temporal Analysis of Dengue Fever in Pakistan”. Dengue fever is affecting major population in tropical and subtropical countries. South Asian region being the host of the major chunk of world’s population and lying in area at risk of dengue fever is highly affected by sporadic dengue outbreaks in several countries including Pakistan. Dengue appeared in Pakistan in 1990’s but since 2006 it became a major issue. Biggest outbreak happened in 2011 in which more than 20 thousand people were infected. There has not been enough research on dengue fever in Pakistan and even what has been done mostly focuses on clinical features of dengue patients. Only a few studies talk about the effect of climate factors i.e., Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity, and wind speed on the dengue transmission in Pakistan. Dengue surveillance data from 2006-2014 from all 36 districts of Punjab (biggest province of Pakistan accounting more than 50% of population of Pakistan) of daily dengue cases has been utilized for analysis. Temperature, rainfall, humidity and wind speed daily as well monthly data for the same region from Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD) will also be used to check its impact on dengue transmission. Population numbers for each district for the same duration have been extracted from Punjab Bureau of Statistics for the sake of calculation of incidence rate. Smaller part of thesis report will also detail about 2013 outbreak of dengue in Swat District (Located in another Province named, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK)). The study aims 1) to determine spatio-temporal trends and distribution of dengue fever in Punjab, 2) to figure out the impact of climate parameters on the dengue fever spread in Punjab and find correlation between weather data and dengue case data, and 3) to determine topographic risk factors which lead to sudden outbreak of dengue fever in Swat in 2013. Spatial and temporal analysis of dengue case numbers will be performed by applying time series analysis. Data used for climate has been taken from Lahore city. The reason for this is because Lahore has been the majorly hit city by dengue. Arc GIS 10.2 ArcGIS® software by Esri is used to geographically visualize the incidence of dengue fever according to each year. It visualizes the dengue incidence rate in each of the 36 districts in Punjab according to each year as well as the diffusion pattern of dengue. It also addresses the spatial distribution, spatio-temporal clustering and diffusion patterns of dengue in Swat district along with the topographical risk mapping for dengue outbreak in 2013 in the Swat district. We have applied retrospective space -time scan statistics to identify purely spatial and spatio-temporal clusters. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to explain the impact of elevation, population density and distance to the nearest water body. It is a sign of future outbreaks in northern highlands of the Pakistan, which are not considered suitable for the mosquito vectors. Pakistan has recently encountered various natural disasters because of climate change, including flooding and heatwaves, which might increase the transmission risk of dengue fever.

參考文獻


Mukhtar, M., Tahir, Z., Baloch, T. M., Mansoor, F., & Kamran, J. (2011). Entomological investigations of dengue vectors in epidemic-prone districts of Pakistan during 2006–2010.
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