應用模式模擬研究越南紅河三角洲 氣候變遷於農業之影響

黃青雲

doi:10.6341/fcu.P9995116

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應用模式模擬研究越南紅河三角洲氣候變遷於農業之影響

Using Simulation Model to study Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

黃青雲 , Ph.D　　Advisor：周天穎　　

英文 DOI： 10.6341/fcu.P9995116

氣候變遷；越南農業；空間資訊系統； SALUS ； Web-GIS ； Climate Change ； Vietnam Agriculture ； Geography Information System ； SALUS Model ； Web-GIS

Abstract │ Reference (83) │ Altmetrics

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In this paper a physical simulation model SALUS is used to explore crop productivity responses to a range of management strategies over multiple years. This research firstly set up a spatial database of experimental site rice production area polygon identified from satellite images, and collected detail daily weather data from meteorology stations for the past 30 years (1982-2011), with soil profile information and management strategy and genetic coefficient. Secondly, Salus model simulation was applied to accurate reflect real observed yield information to compare with simulated result. The residual mean square of the comparison proved around 90 percent of confidence that the model can successful simulated yield output changes for each year. By running model simulation under different predicted weather regime conditions arising from climate change, the effect on rice crop productivity and the output of carbon emission, nitrate leaching, and irrigation demand in the Red River Delta area of Northern Vietnam are spatially compared. The simulation results showed increased rice productivity in this field due to predicted temperature rise. However, there are high costs associated with environmental effects emanating from carbon emissions, greater nitrate leaching and water resources and fertilizer demand etc. to sustain the rice productivity. This paper examined these critical issues by integrating SALUS model and GIS function to demonstrate the possible output both economically and environmentally affect for better agricultural decision on experimental area.

Reference ( 83 ) 〈TOP〉

1. Asian Development Bank ADB. (2000). Final Report on Management Study on Land Use and Water Management – Red River Basin Water Resources Management Projects, p.65
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3. Bachelet, D., Gay, C.A., (1993). The impacts of climate change on rice yield: a comparison of four model performances. Ecol. Model. 65, p.71-93.
連結：
4. Bachelet, D., van Sickle, J., Gay, C.A., (1993b). The impacts of climate change on rice yield: evaluation of the efficacy of different modelling approaches. In: Penning de Vries. F.W.T., Teng, P.S., Metselaar, K. (Eds), Systems Approaches for Agricultural Development. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, p. 145-174.
連結：
6. Basso, B. Ritchie, J.T. Grace, P.R., and Sartori, L. (2006). Simulation of Tillage Systems Impact on Soil Biophysical Properties using the SALUS Model. Italian Journal of Agronomy, p. 677-688.
連結：
9. Bingxin , Tingju Zhu, Clemens Breisinger, Nguyen Manh Hai (2010). Impact of Climate change on Agriculture and Policty Options for Adatation, The case of Vietnam IFPRI Dicusstion Paper 01015.
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