本研究在探討國外客戶採用「客製化生產」模式 (Configure to Order, CTO),對我國筆記型電腦產業之影響。首先運用系統動態學理論及I-think軟體建構出CTO生產模式主要架構,包含:需求預測、台灣運籌中心、資材管理、生產規劃、供應商管理與供應鏈績效等六大子系統;再運用所建構之模型模擬我國電腦產業常見之CTO生產情境,包括: 需求變化、前置時間調整、安全庫存調整等,以求出筆記型電腦產業最佳化之供應鏈管理模式。 研究資料主要是以國內某一線NB廠商某機種2001年第二季至2002年第二季之實際CTO訂單接單量與需求預測為主,再透過專家訪談之方式擬定模式相關變數之設定,模擬結果顯示: 1.在CTO生產情境模擬結果方面,期中緊急插單,容易造成長鞭效應的假性需求放大,導致供應商原物料庫存量增高及期末的呆料損失。 2.降低原物料前置時間(L/T)則對改善供應鏈的整體績效有明顯的效益,頗值得業界參考。 3.組裝廠內安全庫存的下降,雖然能有效降低組裝廠內原料的期末呆料,但是對於供應鏈整體存貨數量並無顯著改善。
This research uses the System Dynamics approach to construct a simulation model of “Configuration to Order business supply chain” within the Notebook Industry in Taiwan. We consider building six sub-models for the CTO business process, including: 1) Demand Forecasting; 2) Taiwan Logistics Center; 3) Production Planning; 4) Material Management; 5) Supplier Management; 6) Supply Chain Management Performance Measurement. By analyzing the interactions between different CTO business model (D+1 & TDS, D+2 & TDS, D+3 & TDS, D+3 & CDS) and situation (Demand adjustment, L/T adjustment, Buffer Stock adjustment), it can be useful to clarify the structure and the dynamic nature of the CTO business process. Along with model construction, scenario analysis throughout this CTO business process is implemented with a view to make system modeling complete and constructive. Refer to the simulation results obtained from the model, Rush order will cause Bullwhip effect and let vendor side have idle stock, L/T improvement can effectively reduce CTO supply chain inventory costs, and complicated managerial policy decisions for different CTO model such as D+1,D+2 & D+3 can be estimated and resolved by this model.