近年來,台灣地區因經濟發展與生活品質的提升,導致增加水資源需求與重視供水的穩定性。南部地區是台灣農業與工商業的發展重鎮,人口密集且經濟活絡。近年來,台南縣市因整體經濟發展快速,使得民生與工業用水的需求逐年增加,短期內台灣南部地區在公共用水需求雖然無虞,但在台南科學園區正式營運後,民國九十八年可能會出現供水不足的窘境。 本研究利用系統動態軟體STELLA分別建構民生用水、工業用水以及農業用水需求子模型,再利用現行之供水分區建構出完整之區域水資源需求模型架構。依據模式模擬未來十年趨勢預測之結果,模擬結果顯示南化、烏山頭系統在未來的人口與民生需水量、工業需水量大致呈現正長成之趨勢,白河,楠玉、鏡面大致呈現負成長之趨勢,在農業用水部分大多是呈現逐年下滑的趨勢。 最後,本研究針對水資源政策施行對水量需求衝擊影響進行模擬,其中,水資源政策類型分為提高工業用水回收率及節約民生用水兩類。模擬結果顯示,如果民生用水每年減少三分之一,每人每日用水量可從290公升降至250公升;在工業用水部分,如果水資源之回收效率由30%提高至65%,可以減緩工業用水需求。因此,提高回收率時可有效減少工業用水成長之幅度。 關鍵字:系統動態、民生用水、工業用水、農業用水
In recent years, economic development and improvement of living standards in Taiwan has elevated the demand for water resources and an emphasis of stability in water provision. Southern regions of Taiwan are important locations of agriculture and industrial development, with dense populations and lively economies. Recently, due to rapid overall economic development in Tainan County and City, so that there have been gradual increases in the demand for domestic and industrial water supply. In the near future, although there are no problems for Southern Taiwan in its demand for public water supply, after the Tainan Science Park officially begins its operations, there may be insufficient water supplies by 2009. This study uses system dynamics domestic software STELLA to construct sub-models of demand for water supply, industrial water supply, and agricultural water supply. And then it uses current water supply areas to construct a comprehensive regional water resources demand model framework. According to results of model simulation of the trend of the next ten years, system of Nan-hua, Wushanto reveal a trend of positive growth in population, domestic water demand, and industrial water demand. Paihe, Nan-yu, Ching-mien generally show a trend of negative growth. In agricultural water supply, most areas show a decline from year to year. Finally, this study conducts simulation on the impacts of implementation of the water resources policy for water demand. The two types of water resources policy are: increase recycling of the industrial water supply and save domestic water supply. Simulation results show that if domestic water supply decreases by one third each year, the daily water consumption for each person can decrease from 290 liters to 250 liters. In the industrial water supply sector, if the recycling efficiency of water resources increases from 30% to 65%, it can alleviate the need for industrial water supply. Keywords: system dynamic methods, domestic water supply, industrial water supply, agricultural water supply