新建住宅可視為市場的風向球,反映出地區發展與房地產類型的潛力。本研究以大台南市為例,運用空間統計方法探討縣市合併升格直轄市前後,新建住宅價格的空間分布與變化。再者,本研究利用克力金法探討台南縣市合併升格前後,新建住宅價格同質區的劃分與變化情形。最後,本研究運用空間自我迴歸模型與特徵價格模型作比較,分析新建住宅價格估計精確度與改善偏誤的情形。 本研究利用空間統計的兩種方法,針對住宅總價與住宅單價進行探討,包含全域型空間自我相關測試(Moran’s I)、地域型空間自我相關測試(LISA)與空間內插法-克力金法(KRIGING),這些方法皆顯示高價位新建住宅聚集之地區為原台南市中心區。低價位新建住宅聚集地區主要位於永康、歸仁、安南區以及南科地區,這些地區離市中心較遠,且為新興發展地區,新建住宅價格較市中心區新建案有不小的價差。再者,透過住宅價格模型比較結果發現,利用空間自我迴歸可改善住宅價格的空間自我相關情形,提升模型的配適度,其中又以空間延遲模型對估計精確度的改善較佳。 縣市合併升格後,高價位新建住宅推案逐漸往東區聚集,而鄰近仁德與永康區較低價位住宅的推案數量亦明顯增加,此結果隱含著縣市合併升格直轄市其行政區擴大後,住宅市場發展不再局限於原來的市中心地區,而是以大台南地區的觀點考量。透過主要交通軸線的貫穿,新建住宅推案則逐漸聚集在交通可及性更佳的地區。
New built housing plays a pioneer role in the housing market representing the potential of locality and real estate development. This study uses Tainan city as an example to analyze the impact of the amalgamation of Tainan metropolis on the change in spatial allocation of new built house prices by employing spatial statistical approaches. Furthermore, this study uses the Kriging method to discuss the change in the allocation of new built housing price areas before and after the amalgamation of Tainan metropolis. The spatial autoregression model is employed to be compared with the hedonic price model and to improve the estimation bias of new built housing prices. By using three different spatial statistical approaches including Moran's I test, LISA and Kriging to estimate the changes in new built housing prices, the results show that higher-price housing projects are concentrated in inner city areas while lower-price housing projects are concentrated in out-layer areas including Jung-Kong, Guiren, Anna and Southern Science Park areas where these are new development areas and have significant price differences with inner city areas. In addition, it was found that spatial autoregression models, especially spatial lag models have better model goodness-of-fit thus increasing estimation accuracy of new housing prices. After amalgamation of Tainan metropolis, higher-price housing projects have gradually been concentrated on East district, while low- price housing projects have been concentrated on the adjacent areas, such as Ren De and Jung-Kong areas. This indicates that housing market areas have no longer limited in inner city areas after the adjustment of metropolitan districts. It has been from greater Tainan city perspective to look at the housing market. New housing projects have been allocated alongside the national highway which provides better accessibility.
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