近年來,生技製藥產業被公認為二十一世紀的明星產業,且被認為會帶給人類生活極大的改變與希望,所以生技製藥產業的發展與創新自然成為全球政府在下一階段極力投入的高科技產業。本研究基於投資人對“生技製藥產業”價值認知的疑惑仍多,因而影響投資意願,導致產業的籌資與發展充滿許多不確定性,因此整理國內外有關現金流量折現法、相對評價法與實質選擇權法等企業評價相關之理論與文獻,並在此三種不同角度的企業評價觀念下,採用Damodaran-修正後自由現金流量法、三階段相對評價法以及實質選擇權評價法對台灣上市(櫃)的生技醫療產業進行各價模式適用性之研究,以作為未來相關投資人或業者評價此類公司價值之參考與應用。 本研究實證結果顯示,我國目前生技產業之股價與財務績效有相當顯著的關聯,並發現修正後自由現金流量折現法較其他兩種評價方法更適用於評價台灣上市(櫃)生技製藥公司。此外,相對評價之本益比法對評價台灣上市(櫃)生技製藥公司具有不錯的解釋力,且優於股價淨值比法與股價銷售比法。最後,因目前國內投資人對“生技製藥產業”前景發展不確定性的疑惑仍多,導致低估公司在未來高成長下的企業價值,使得只考慮財務經營績效之實質選擇權法,目前尚不適用評價台灣上市(櫃)生技製藥公司之市場價值。
From the past decade till now, we found that Biotechnology and Pharmacy industry which brings hope and improvement to human’s life ,well be the star industry in the 21st century. All governments of the well-developed countries have been concentrated on the development and innovation of Biotechnology and Pharmacy industry recently. However most investor are unfamiliar with Biotechnology and Pharmacy industry and its value, causing uncertainties in the money-raising and development of this industry. The purpose of this study is to employ revised Damodaran free cash flow model, three stages Relative valuation model and Real options model to evaluate Biotechnology and Pharmacy industry in Taiwan. We hope this study can provide references and suggestions for government and investors to evaluate the value of Biotechnology and Pharmacy firms. The empirical result indicate that the relationship is positively of stock price and the financial performance of Taiwanese Biotechnology and Pharmacy firms. The results also demonstrate that to value the company of Biotechnology and Pharmacy on Taiwan Stock Exchange and Over the Counter markets, Discounted free cash flow model is more suitable than Relative valuation model and Real options model for Taiwanese companies. Moreover, among the three Relative valuation model, P/E ratio method has better than P/B ratio and P/S ratio methods. As for Real options model since it, only considers financial of the firms,we suggest that it is not appropriate for using Real option model to value the Biotechnology and Pharmacy firms in Taiwan.