研發專案多架構評估模式建立之研究-以國防武器研發專案為例

A Study of R&D Project Multiple Structures Evaluation Model To Establishing --With the Example of Weapon Projects

陳寶華(Pao-Hua Chen)

指導教授 ： 顧志遠

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2003年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200300031

摘要

摘 要
研發專案評估為一複雜問題，其包含兩個部份，一為研發專案評估準則之選擇，另一則為評估模式之建構：就評估準則而言，傳統研發專案多從財務、行銷、技術等構面評估，如市場佔有率、技術成功機率等，為使研發專案評估準則更具周延性，有關準則選擇部份，本論文除依據相關文獻綜整傳統研發專案評估準則外，特別強調知識資源與研發風險的重要性，經由推論演繹獲得影響研發專案評估準則包含策略面、行銷面、財務面、研發面、製造面等五個構面，以及受環境變數影響機率、對社會發展的貢獻、與組織目標之關聯性、市場趨勢與成長性、技術成功與商品化機率、資源可用性、完成時間、成本、投資報酬率、製造能力、計畫主持人能力、高階主管支持度、知識資源和研發風險等十四項評估準則，建立整體性之研發專案評估準則。在評估模式部份，本論文以層級一致性分析(HCA)針對多架構、多層級、多準則項目的評估問題，所發展的一種權重決定理論，建構較多架構評估模式，以避免過去學者多以分析層級法建立單一的評估架構，容易受決策者主觀意見與評估架構影響，造成評估結果的偏差，故便成為本論文之概念緣起。
本研究以模式建立法，建構一般化之研發專案多架構評估模式，為驗證模式之可行性，選擇國防武器研發專案為實證對象，運用HCA理論對多種研發專案評估架構決定各層及各評估項目之權重，較一般根植於單一架構的權重決定方法更能客觀的由多種角度來測定決策者給定權重時的理性程度；本論文經由國防武器研發專案評選實證結果，在管理上有助於決策者或資源分配者多方面了解各不同評估觀點的想法與差異產生原因所在。文中由準則選定、建立評估模式、流程、步驟至實證，將此模式研究經過完整呈現。

關鍵字

層級一致性分析 ； 評估準則 ； 研發專案 ； 評估模式 ； 研究發展

並列摘要

Abstract
A study of R&D project evaluation is a complicated subject. It consists of two parts –the choice of the principle of R&D project evaluation and the establishment of evaluation model. For the principle of evaluation, a study of tradition R&D evaluates from finance, marketing and technology. Such as market share, probabilities of technology success and so on. To make a study of R&D more convicing relating to principle choice, this paper is based on related papers dealing with traditional R&D evaluation principle and lay stress on the importance of resource of knowledge and risk of R&D. we acquire the influences on R&D evaluation principle, including strategy, marketing, finance, R&D and manufacturing. In addition, there are fourteen evaluation principles-probabilities influenced by environment, contribution to society development, organization goal, market trend and potential, probability of technology and commercial success, usability of resource, completion time, cost, return of investment, ability of manufacture, ability of project conductor, support of high-level conductors, knowledge resources and risk of R&D. establishment of complete R&D evaluation principles are as above. For evaluation model, this paper is base on HCA and deals with multiple structures, multiple levels and multiple principles. Therefore it develops a weighting methodology and establishes more evaluation models in order to improve the single evaluation structure of HCA for the past, which tends to be influenced by the subjective opinion of a conductor and evaluation structures. By this, we may avoid the bias of environment results. That’s the concept I work on the paper.
This research is based on model establishment, constructing general R&D multiple structures evaluation model. To prove the usability of this model, we choose military weapons as the subject and make use of HCA theory to give a more objective measurement, which the single structure can’t do. This paper is proved to be practical in a military weapons R&D study. It does help conductors understand more different evaluation viewpoints and why the differences happen. In this article, we show the model completely by principle choice, establishing evaluation models, procedure, steps, and proof.

並列關鍵字

Hierarchies Consistency Analysis (HCA) ； Evaluation Model ； Evaluation Criteria ； R&D Project ； R&D

參考文獻

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