- 學位論文
實質選擇權股價評估模式之研究-以單矩陣式液晶顯示器與數位相機產業為例
The Empirical Study on Real Option Valuation Model- Based on the Industries of TN/STN-LCD and Digital Camera.
摘要
台灣產業界進入了微利時代，企業面臨的經營環境因應經濟結構的改變競爭越來越激烈，導致利潤急遽壓縮，因此若能利用民間充足的資金以提升企業規模、競爭能力、及整體佈局，對企業來說有相當大的助益。從一般投資大眾角度來說，在零利率的時代，分享企業經營的成果、追求高於存款利率的報酬，便可以縮短累積財富的時間。 此外我國對於單矩陣式液晶顯示器及數位相機產業投入的資源非常多，在全球所佔有的市場也逐步提高，由兩個產業的成長狀況亦不同，所以本研究便選取這兩產業中的企業來分析研究，同時有鑑於投資人對企業價值及影響企業價值的重要因子瞭解仍存疑，導致對投資看法、方向產生影響，因此以整理國內外相關折現概念、相對指標與選擇權等企業評價方法之理論與文獻，採用Damodaran-修正後自由現金流量法、相對指標評價法以及選擇權評價法共計8種評價模型對台灣上市(櫃)的單矩陣式液晶顯示器及數位相機產業進行模式適用性之探討，及企業價值關鍵因子分析，希望以作為投資人或業者對於該產業公司價值之參考與應用。 本研究實證結果發現，對於兩產業以選擇權評價模式有相當不錯的適用程度，其中實質選擇權評價模式在高成長率的單矩陣式液晶顯示器產業公司初期其適用性比數位相機產業公司更佳。此外相對指標評價法亦有不錯的解釋力，但因為對於目前國內處於景氣不佳的情形之下，導致低估公司在實際營收表現的折現概念評價法相較之下則不適用於目前的單矩陣式液晶顯示器及數位相機產業。同時本研究以適用性較高的實質選擇權評價法，進行企業價值關鍵因子分析，發現成本佔收入的比率高低是影響企業價值最關鍵的因子，而在高成長率穩定下的數位相機產業中對於期初成長率回復到長期成長率之速率的重要性，則是大於高成長率初期的單矩陣式液晶顯示器產業。
並列摘要
The tiny profit times of Taiwan’s industry has come. The companies which are faced with the changes of economic structure for business environments compete more and more sharp. That will make companies’ profit reduce very quickly. So it is good for companies if can make use of the popular capital to promote company’s scale, competitive ability, and whole position. By the point of investors’ view, in order to reduce the time of accumulating wealth that can share the operated result of companies, and run after the higher rewards than the savings’ rate. Besides this, our country put a lot of resources in TN/STN-LCD and Digital Camera industries. It makes the share of market which we own increase progressively, too. However the two industries’ rates of grew up are different and the most investors are unfamiliar with enterprise’s value and causing uncertainties, the purpose of this study takes this two industries to analyze and put internal or overseas literatures about Free Cash Flow Model, Relative Valuation and Option Valuation Model in order. Adding up eight kinds of valuation models to employ free cash flow models, three approaches of three stages relative valuation models, and B-S, Real Option models to evaluate enterprise’s value finding out what model is suitable and the key factors of enterprise’s value based on TN/STN-LCD and Digital Camera industries. We hope this study can provide references and suggestions for government and investors to evaluate value of these two industries. The empirical result indicate that Option Valuation Model has good suitability in two industries. Among this, the Real Option Valuation Model has better suitability in the high rate of initial growing up stage for TN/STN-LCD industry than Digital Camera industry. Relative Valuation Model are also suitable but free cash flow models are not suitable for both industries at not good prosperity present. As regards the the key factors of enterprise’s value we find the cost of income factor is the most important about enterprise’s value of these two industries. And the initial stage rate of growing up for TN/STN-LCD industry is more important than the rate of growing up form initial stage to long stage for Digital Camera industry.
參考文獻
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