許多開發中的國家已經透過互惠合作(Offset-台灣稱為工業合作計畫, ICP)管道快速且有效的獲得了必要的關鍵性技術。 在本研究中,首先提出一個包括四階段過程的工業合作計畫機制:階段一:鑑別ICP專案評估準則變數;階段二:依據評估準則變數評估ICP專案項目的順序;階段三:ICP專案協定之協商;階段四:ICP專案得執行)的工業合作計畫機制 (本研究僅討論階段一、二、三) 。 其次,以F-16戰機合作生產為例,使用模糊多準則決策模式(MCDM)模擬工業合作計畫機制中的階段一與階段二的決策過程,並確認是一個可行的方法。 最終,本研究提出一個動態衝突分析法,並使用此法於1962年古巴飛彈危機與1989年中日矽晶圓材料合資案協商進行協商衝突過程的模擬與分析,顯示此法能重複模擬,在協商之前或協商期間,對不同選項不但能立即清楚顯示協商過程而且能預測可能的結果。
Most developing countries achieved necessary critical technology quickly and efficiently through the offset (namely ICP for Taiwan) channel. In this study, first an ICP mechanism (4-stages: Stage I: Identify the ICP project evaluation criteria variables; Stage II: Evaluate the ICP project item’s order under the evaluation criteria variables; Stage III: Negotiate the ICP project agreement; Stage IV: Execute the ICP project (project management) was proposed. Second, the fuzzy multiple criteria decision mode was used to simulate stages I, II in the 4-stage approach process (F-16 fighter co-production was used as an example), and this decision mode had been identified it as a workable method. Finally, a dynamic conflict analysis algorithm was proposed and used to analyze the Cuban crisis of 1962 and the Silicon Wafer Materials Joint Venture Case between Taiwan and Japan of 1989. This method could be simulated repeatedly, and not only forecasted the negotiation process and it is thus clear but also obtained possible outcome for different options before the negotiation or at the duration of negotiation at once.
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