以辯證思維為導向的策略決策分析模式 建立之研究

The Study on the Buildup of An Analytical Model of Dialectic Thinking Oriented Strategical Policy-Decision

林宏仁(Hung-Jen Lin)

指導教授 ： 顧志遠

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500745

摘要

摘 要

策略決策一直是企業要生存、求發展的主要手段，所以企業管理中最重要的就是作出正確的策略決策，讓企業有清楚的方向可依循，明確的目標可追求。策略決策主要分成三個階段：解析、判斷、決行；解析是基礎、判斷是型塑、決行是落實。解析階段有數據便可搭配一般的分析工具（如：AHP、SMART多目標決策分析法）或輔助軟體（如：決策支援系統Decision Support System, DSS ）而得到精確性及一致性的參考資料。決行階段則是就已確立之方案或目標讓其付諸實現，所需要的是技術層面的問題，其結果也僅成與不成二種，是非常清楚且可量化的數據。
判斷階段居二階段之間，具有：承-解析階段之結果，起-執行階段之目標，扼守樞紐地位；是決策者主觀思維意志的展現，所影響的因素包含決策者的生活習慣、價值觀、專業素養、實務經驗、社會常規等等，這些都是無法科學量化且非可控性強的因素，而判斷階段是策略決策主要成敗的關鍵，最具影響的因素卻是最無法科學量化且非可控性強的因素。決策科學在探求理性決策的研究方面多在解析與決行二極上努力，這些可科學量化的部分已獲致很好的成果，而判斷階段無法科學量化的因素部份則研究甚少。
我們發現策略決策的過程，具依循辯證思維的規律與方法運作發展的根本特性，因此將辯證思維導入策略決策的研究，運用於決策者主觀思維的分析，針對思維對問題處理的思維特性與規律作概括性的分析，並發展出一套以辨證思維為導向的決策分析模式。本決策分析模式，以辯證思維的三個規律作為決策分析模式的骨幹，輔以辯證思維的四個方法作為決策分析模式的精神，模式的設計主要由辯證思維的規律發展出一般決策的選項表，給參與決策的人勾選出主要關鍵項目，主要關鍵項目經過量測計算對重要性排序，再針對主要關鍵因素的現況值與目標值的差值變化作辯證推理，最後訂出辯證的決策方案。

關鍵字

辯證法 ； 決策心理學 ； 螺旋發展

並列摘要

Abstract

Strategic policy decision has always been primary means for an enterprise to survive and develop. So the most important thing in business administration is to make right policy decision that may point a clear direction for the enterprise to follow and clear goals to pursue. A strategic policy decision can be divided into three stages: analysis, judgment and determination to implement Analysis is a basis, judgment is molding and determination to implement is fixing policy decision and implementation. In the stage of analysis, the data could couple with general tools of analysis (such as AHP, SMART) or supporting software (such as Decision Support System, DSS) to obtain precise and consistent references. In the stage of determination to implement, the policy decision or the target is fixed and managed to realize that it needs supports from technological aspects and its results are success or failure
only, so there is a very clear and quantitative data.

The stage of judgment is between the stage of analysis and the stage of determination to implement that has a pivotal position as elucidating the results of the stage of analysis and introducing the targets of stage of implementation. It’s a demonstration of subjective thinking and willing of a decision maker. The affecting factors include habits, viewpoint of value, expertise, practical experiences of the decision maker and social norms that could not be quantized and are not strong controllable factors. The stage of judgment is the key of success of a strategic policy decision. It has most influential factors that also could not be scientifically quantized and are not strong controllable factors. Most parts of policy-decision science focus on the exploration of two poles of analysis and determination to implement on the aspect of reasonable policy decision of research. Those parts that could be scientifically quantized have achieved excellent results while the researches on the part of stage of
judgment that could not be scientifically quantized are few.

We found that the process of strategic policy decision has fundamental characteristics of operation and development that follow the rules and methods of dialectic thinking, so we included the dialectic thinking into the research of strategic policy decision. In the research, we took advantage of analyses of subjective thinking of decision maker to make a summary analysis of characteristics and rules of thinking on problem-solution and developed an analytic model of dialectic thinking oriented policy decision. The analytic model of policy decision took three rules of dialectic thinking as the backbone and is supported by four methods of dialectic thinking as spirit. The model was designed to develop a option list for general policy decision by the rules of dialectic thinking. The decision makers could select major key items in the list. The selected key items were arranged by order of importance through measurement and calculation. Then made a dialectic inference of changes of values of difference between values of current situation and values of target in key factors. Finally,
we could work out a dialectic policy decision.

並列關鍵字

policy decision psychology ； spiral development ； Keywords: dialectic

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