本研究使用American Meteorology Society / Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) 大氣擴散模式模擬2007年桃園地區點固定污染源鉛排放的擴散分布,再透過Hotspots Analysis and Reporting Program (HARP) 熱點分析程式之風險估算功能量化當地民眾暴露於AERMOD金屬鉛模擬之擴散分布下5th、50th和95th百分位值的呼吸途徑致癌風險值,並畫出風險地圖。 將台灣排放量資料庫 (Taiwan Emission Data System,TEDS) 中2007年桃園縣所有排放鉛的工廠當做點污染源,輸入台灣北部地形高程與「空氣品質模式模擬規範」指示的2007年氣象資料,藉以讓AERMOD模擬2007年桃園地區點固定污染源鉛排放的擴散分布,接著把擴散分布的鉛濃度值輸入HARP,根據不同性別與年齡 (男性、女性、男女綜合、未成年人0~18歲及成年人19~70歲) 假設為6種族群,並參考台灣一般民眾暴露參數資料設定符合國人之呼吸速率參數,再分別計算暴露於9年與70年時間長度之金屬鉛呼吸途徑致癌風險值。 由AERMOD模擬結果發現蘆竹鄉的年平均最大鉛濃度最高,觀音鄉次之,從台灣排放量資料庫分析的各鄉鎮鉛排放量來看,其排放量次序也相同,而污染物的擴散分布大致以東北-西南方向傳輸。在AERMOD的模擬值與桃園縣環保局人工測站的監測值比較上,以桃園(比值2.939)、內定(比值5.603)與蘆竹(比值6.829)測站相對較為準確,雖然模擬結果相對偏高,但在龜山、中壢、桃園、蘆竹及內定測站中仍有一定比例的模擬值接近監測值,考究原因應為對照樣本數不足,少數差異高值將差距拉大,以及做為模擬根據的民航局中正機場站氣象資料無法準確呈現桃園縣內區域對流的變化,且距離中正機場測站越遠差異越大。比較各族群的風險值與風險地圖,發現大園鄉與蘆竹鄉的金屬鉛吸入性致癌風險值較其他地區高,風險值介於5E-06到5E-05之間,且男性的風險值略高於女性,未成年人的風險值高於成年人,這是由於男性與未成年人的呼吸速率較高,造成金屬鉛吸入性致癌風險值整體增高。 雖然本研究之估算為最保守假設下的狀況,實際上人類的活動會產生許多的不確定性,但單以環境與人口負荷來看,桃園縣的鉛排放量確實是較其他地區高,為了避免長年的鉛排放也令生活環境累積過多得重金屬,還是建議改善含鉛製程、在逸散鉛微粒的程序設置集塵設備,或是於排放量較大的污染源周邊增設監測設備,管制鉛排放對人類與環境的危害,並期望能夠調查各種環境介質的重金屬含量,進一步確定鉛的全面性危害程度。
This study aims to assess lifetime health risk associated with concentrations of heavy metal lead that emitted from stationary pollution sources in ambient air in Taoyuan County using air dispersion model - American Meteorology Society / Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) and Hotspots Analysis and Reporting Program (HARP). Lifetime cancer risks in inhalation pathway were conducted for various age (0-18 years and 19-70 years old) and sex stratifications. Exposure scenarios of heavy metal lead was also evaluated for their measurements at 5, 50 and 95 percentiles. The AERMOD simulated concentrations of heavy metal lead in Taoyuan County in 2007 and found the first high annual average concentration in Luzhu. After comparing simulated concentrations and monitoring records of Taoyuan environmental protection agency, the present study found the ratio of simulation and observed is lower in Taoyuan, Neiding and Luzhu that indicated their accurateness were better than other areas. The HARP estimated lifetime cancer risk for lead in inhalation pathway were ranged from 5×10-9 to 5×10-5 in Taoyuan County, and ranged 1×10-6 to 5×10-5 in Taoyuan, Luzhu and Jungli. This study suggested that the dispersion concentrations of heavy metal lead was higher in some study areas because the limited weather monitoring station and effects of regional convection cannot be estimated in AERMOD, therefore, lead to the higher health risk in inhalation pathway.
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