工業生產所必須的基礎設備即為工具機,由於工具機屬高單價產品,使顧客在下單前需縝密的思考並與企業進行多次洽談,因此公司無法得知顧客何時確定下單,本研究將此類目前尚未確定下單,但未來卻可能發生的訂單,稱之為潛在性訂單。近年來受全球市場景氣復甦使工具機產業的訂單需求量突然劇增,將造成產能供給無法滿足需求量的情況發生,但全球市場變化難以預測,隨時需求可能突然下降,決策者無法單純只靠增減產線來因應需求,因此本研究提出預留門檻的概念,在現有的產能下,透過提早準備潛在訂單之所需以縮短生產的前置時間,來減緩需求突然劇增所產生的訂單排擠現象,進而探討門檻值對潛在性訂單獲利之影響。 本研究對象以機械業工具機為主,首先,建構工具機產業遇到潛在性訂單問題時的相關模擬模式,透過模式驗證來確定邏輯程序上的正確性,並將案例公司的相對數據套入於模擬模式中,分別進行三種預留策略、多種派工法則以及產能、需求和成本上的變動等情境模擬,將多種情境的模擬數據結果整理並繪製圖表,分析探討門檻值與利潤之間的變化與相互關係,並詳細闡述變化的原因,進而分析管理面向之意涵。面對潛在性訂單問題時,除了經驗法則外,更提供具體數據與圖表做為參考。
Machine tool is exactly one of the necessary fundamental equipment of industrial production. Since machine tools are high retail prices products, customers usually take deep consideration before they make a decision. This study defines the potential orders as uncertain orders which might be placed in the future. In recent years, demands of machine tools increase dramatically due to economic recovery. Consequently, supply might fall short of demand. However, the global market is unpredictable that demand could decrease any time. The manager cannot meet demand just rely on increasing production lines. Hence, this study proposes the concept of reservation threshold which reduces the effects of the order congregation from the sudden increases of demands by preparing potential orders under existing production capacity. We will furthermore discuss the impact of capacity reservation threshold to the profits of potential orders. This study focuses on machine tool in the mechanical industry. First of all, build related simulation models of machine tool industry when encountering potential order problems. Second, prove correctness of the logic through model verification. Third, apply data from case studies to the simulation model and run simulations under three kinds of reservation policy, multiple of dispatching rules and change in capacity, demand and cost. Then convert results from simulation to chart and analyze the changes and the relationship between threshold and profits. Find the way for managing by elaborating on reasons of changes. When facing problems like potential orders, specific data and charts can be used as references besides the rule of thumb.