摘要 在現今激烈競爭的環境下,資訊科技的迅速發展和產品的推陳出新,導致需 求變化快速以及產品生命週期縮短,以往敵對的企業關係已不復存在,取而代之 的是協同合作商務時代的來臨,如何有效的結合供應鏈上的夥伴,共同面對快速 變化的環境,為現今創造企業競爭優勢的關鍵。 藉此,本研究將規劃設計出一協同訂單規劃與補貨機制,研究範圍針對問題 特性為上下游企業有協同合作之必要或遇到產品生命週期短、需求預測不準確、 需求變動頻繁、經常性庫存過多或缺貨問題的企業,並以唱片產業當中的唱片公 司與唱片發行通路商為研究對象,依據VICS(Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Standards)所提出CPFR(Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment) 商業流程為參考架構,發展出一套協同訂單規劃與補貨機制。使唱片公司與發行 通路商能在CPFR 流程下創造一個雙向的互動溝通程序。故此機制接續協同銷售 預測值所產生的結果,視為一連續固定變動之常數,由於仍為預測值,故考量過 往相同等級(唱片類型、歌手等級和假日效應)之唱片資料作為新產品之安全庫 存量設定之參考,再利用批量動態調整模式考量採購時相關成本來決定多產品之 訂購點與訂購量之決策,並透過實驗設計找尋出較佳基因演算法參數的組合以利 求解。在唱片上市後,評估實際銷售量與原先的預測量差異過大時,透過調整後 的銷售預測重新規劃產品訂購點與訂購量。期望透過完整的協同訂單規劃與補貨 機制,提供唱片產業者面對難以掌握的市場時,可以精準的瞭解市場對唱片產品 的需求且擁有即時回應之能力。
Abstract In the environment of keen competition nowadays, rapid development of IT and quick replacement trend of new products has already resulted in fast change of products in demand and shorten products’ life cycle. Enterprises cannot exist in the market independently, and the hostility toward each other doesn’t exist, either. On the contrast, it’s now an era of mutual-cooperation in the business. Therefore, how to create an effective combination of collaborative partners in the supply chain is the long last competitive key point when dealing with this fiercely changing market. The purpose of this research is to develop a collaborative order planning and replenishment mechanism that based on the CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment) business process model published by VICS (the Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Standards). The research ranges are mainly in the music record industry, the necessity of the collaboration between up and downstream suppliers, and their problems of brief product life cycle, the inaccuracy of the demand forecast, the frequency of the demand changes, being unable to control the demand information, high inventories and loss sales on both supplier and retailer. The mechanism follows the result of sales forecasting in CPFR, is deemed as a regular changeable parameter. This research takes disc data of the same grade in the pass (The type of the disc, singer’s grade and vacation effect) to be the safety stock volume of new products, and then utilizes lot sizing model to consider purchasing relevant cost and decide the order point and quantities. Through the design of experiment, the enterprise can find a better gene parameters combination. Accordingly, while the enterprise is facing huge differences between actual sales and the original forecasting of new products, it can solve the problem by adjusting sales forecasting model to rearrange order plans. These are the reference bases for providing music record enterprise to control accurately the uncertain factors of market and respond immediately.
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