桃園海岸土地利用時空變遷

連美綺(May-Chee Lian)

指導教授 ： 廖學誠

國立臺灣師範大學/文學院/地理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

隨著工業的發展，土地利用型態不斷轉變中，尤其是臺灣沿海一帶。在工業區不斷取代著農業用地的情況下，致使環境與景觀產生巨大的變化，桃園海岸地區即是一例。本研究為了解桃園海岸地區1978年、1994年及2004年之土地利用變遷情形，及土地利用變遷對於防風林的影響，首先利用地理資訊系統（GIS）將研究區內土地利用型態分類為防風林、農地、建地、水體、道路、沙地及草地與空地等7項，建立土地利用類型圖，用以了解各時期土地利用類型面積變化情形。其次，透過轉移矩陣及馬可夫模式探討各種土地利用型態於各時期之變遷，與模擬未來土地利用變遷情況。最後使用Logit模式分析各時期影響防風林發展之因子、防風林之空間分佈變遷機率及結合馬可夫模式模擬預測結果，模擬未來防風林可能之空間分佈情況。
研究結果發現，桃園海岸地區於此26年間土地利用最大變化為農地的大量減少及建地與道路的快速增加，此外，防風林有減少且趨破碎化。透過馬可夫模式之模擬預測，未來土地利用型態在無任何環境與人為干擾下，防風林與農地會持續減少，而建地及道路則會持續增加。Logit模式之分析結果顯示海拔高度、距農地距離、距道路距離、距水體距離及距沙地距離等幾項因子與防風林之變遷機率有顯著相關，而結合馬可夫模式模擬預測結果與防風林變遷機率，其各時期結果皆顯示防風林有減少且破碎化之趨勢。期本研究之結果能提供此區防風林管理及相關海岸政策制訂之參考。

關鍵字

土地利用 ； 防風林 ； 馬可夫模式 ； Logit模式

並列摘要

The land use patterns are constantly changing in Taiwan due to the rapid economic growth, especially the coastal area which are often transformed into industrial zones and other utilities in Taiwan. When industrial zones continually replace lots of agricultural lands, the local natural environments and human landscapes are also changed dramatically, take Tao-Yuan coastal area as an clear example. The purpose of this research is to understand the land use changes in 1978, 1994, and 2004 in Tao-Yuan coastal area, and also to discover the effects of land-use changes toward the windbreaks. First of all, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is applied to delineate the spatial distributions of different land-use types in researching area by classifying land-use patterns into windbreak, farm, built-up, water, road, sand dune, and bare/ grass lands. Secondly, explore land use patterns of changes in each period by using the transfer matrix and Markov models, and then simulate the transformation of the land-use in the future. After that, analyze the factors of the impacts about windbreak-development in each period of time, find out the probability changes of the spatial distribution of the windbreak and predict the result by combining with the Markov model. Last but not least, simulate the situation about the future of windbreak-development.
The researching results showed that the most land-use change in the past 26 years in Tao-Yuan coastal area was the decreasing of agricultural proportions, comparatively rapid increasing of built-up and road proportions. In addition, the windbreaks decreased and tended to be fragmented. Predict through the Markov model simulation, future land-use patterns without environment and human interferences, the windbreak and agricultural proportions will decrease continuously, however, the built-up and road proportions will still increase. In addition, based on the logit model analysis, these explanatory variables have significant effects on the windbreak-development, including elevation, the distance to farm, water, road and sand dunes. Combining the outcomes of Markov model simulating prediction with the probabilities of the changes of windbreaks, the results showed that the windbreaks tended to be reducing constantly and also became fragmented in each period. Expect the results of this study can provide a reference for windbreaks management and regulations relating coastal establishment in Tao-Yuan.

並列關鍵字

Land Use ； Windbreak ； Markov Model ； Logit Model

參考文獻

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