究竟一個國家政府的清廉程度對該國旅遊市場之發展是否有顯著之影響,因以往之研究缺乏量化證據,故難以論斷。本研究以縱橫資料迴歸(panel data regression)為工具,採用國際透明組織發佈之貪腐印象指數(Corruption Perception Index, CPID)作為政府清廉程度之替代變數,探討CPID其對已開發國家(每人平均GDP兩萬以上的國家,計有19個樣本國家)與主要新興工業化國家(每人平均GDP兩萬以下的國家,計有15個樣本國家)旅遊市場發展績效之影響,並針對兩群樣本國家之分析結果進行比較。根據以往文獻,本研究除CPID外,採用了三個總體經濟控制變數:各國匯率、國內生產毛額與消費者物價指數;至於國家發展旅遊市場之績效指標(被解釋變數)共有六項:入境旅客人數、出境旅客人數、旅遊外匯收入、入境消費金額、國人出境消費金額和國人境內消費金額,本研究一一加以測試,故有六次(十二組)迴歸結果。 實證結果發現,國家政治愈清廉(CPID值變大)對於已開發國家發展旅遊市場之績效多有顯著為正之影響;然而,CPID對主要新興工業化國家發展旅遊市場績效之收入面影響不顯著,對支出面影響卻較顯著。控制變數中國內生產毛額之變動對絕大多數研究對象(十二組中之十一組)發展旅遊市場之績效有顯著且正向之影響,而且對新興工業化國家之影響大於對已開發國家之影響,可見國內生產毛額才是影響國家發展旅遊市場最重要之變數。
It’s hard to judge whether or not the government’s incorruptibility hassignificantimpact on the national tourism market development because there is not enough quantitative evidence provided by previous research. This study aims to examine the impact of Corruption Perception Index (CPID) on developed countries (the GDP per capita overtwenty thousands, a total of 19 sample countries) and emerging country (the GDP per capita under twenty thousands, a total of 15 sample countries) by adopting the CPID published by Transparency International as the proxy variable of government’s incorruptibility.This study used Panel Data Regression to assess statistical significance between two sample groups mentioned above. Besides CPID,this study adopted three macroeconomic control variables:exchange rate, gross domestic product per capita and consumer price index according to previous studies.It also included six performance indicators (as explanatory variables)of the national tourism market development: number of inbound visitors, number of outbound visitors, international tourism receipts, visitor exports, international tourism expenditures and domestic tourism spending. As a result, a total of six regression models (with twelve outcomes) were to be performed. The findings indicate that the government's incorruptibility index has significant positive correlation with the developed countries’ performance of the national tourism market development; CPID has significant effect on the expenditure of the national tourism market development performance for the emerging countries, but not on the revenue; for most of the study samples (11 out of 12 outcomes), changes of the GDP per capita has a significant positive effect on the tourism market development performance, and the effect is larger in the emerging countries than the developed countries. Consequently, GDP per capita is the key factor that affects the national tourism market development.
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