台灣地區離岸式風力發電成本效益分析

Offshore wind power generator Cost/Benefit analysis in Taiwan

郭世勳(Shin-Hsun Kuo)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

為因應國內能源供應高度仰賴進口情勢，及全球管制溫室氣體趨勢，因此以潔淨為訴求之風力發電成為各國競相發展的目標，但隨著陸域之優良風場隨著開發逐漸減少，因此新一代離岸風力發電機已朝向近海海域發展，可獲得較高的電力產出，但因其技術較為複雜，造成投資成本較高。自1998 年起政府陸續規劃再生能源發展目標、獎勵措施與誘因，促進發展再生能源，這對於未來電力部門造成之影響仍有不確定性因素存在。所以，本研究回顧國內外文獻對西部近海海域之風力潛能作一評估，以目前政府對於再生能源之補助，應用工程經濟學之評估方法估算其是否具有投資之經濟效益。最後計算政府對風力發電之收購電價補貼對整體社會產生之外部成本效益，以期對於風力發電有更全面的考量。
研究結果如下：
一、 由於離岸風力投資成本較高，以目前每度電力2元之電力收購價格，投資回本年限皆超過設備之經濟壽命，對於投資離岸風力較無誘因。
二、 評估台灣西部海域離岸風力理論開發潛力達1313萬瓩，若考慮保護區禁止開發，風力開發潛能約799萬瓩。以容量因數39.9％計算，約可達2007台灣地區年用電量之14.9~24.6％。
三、 離岸風力發電每度電力產生-0.44~1.38元之外部效益，在CO2減量成本較高時，具有整體社會淨效益。

關鍵字

離岸風力 ； 再生能源 ； 風力潛能 ； 工程經濟學 ； 外部成本效益

並列摘要

To deal with high energy import in Taiwan and to reduce greenhouse gas emission, use wind energy to generate electricity and reduce greenhouse gas emission is a better choice. With wind power developing, less and less land to install wind turbines, offshore wind power answer our needs well. But higher electricity production and capital cost are two key parts to estimate. The government to plan renewable policies, regulation policies and economic incentives to develop it since 1998, but some uncertain problem may affect power plant. This study refers literatures to estimate western offshore wind power potential in Taiwan and use engineering economy to estimate economic benefit and cost, finally combine externality benefit and cost make full-scale consideration.
The result show below:
1. High capital cost causes none of benefit with energy policies and payback period over 20years at present.
2. There are 13,130 megawatt offshore wind power potential in western Taiwan. There are 7,990 megawatt offshore wind power potential in western Taiwan if it considers that reserves can’t develop. It can supply 14.9~24.6％ power of electricity demand in Taiwan in 2007.
3. There are -0.44~1.38 NT dollars per kilowatt hour of externality benefit. It have net benefit when CO2 reducing cost higher.

並列關鍵字

offshore wind power ； renewable energy ； wind power potential ； engineering economy ； externality benefit and cost

參考文獻

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