住宅投資權價值之評價

Valuation of Housing Investment Value

王佳鈴(Chia-Ling Wang)

指導教授 ： 彭建文

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

住宅為兼具消費與投資功能的重要財貨，可同時提供居住服務與投資選擇。參考國內學者與美國金融業者提出住宅增值參與證券(Home Appreciation Participation Notes, HAPNs)的概念。本研究主要目的為利用估價與財務概念建立將房價拆解為消費權價值與投資權價值的估價模型。
透過文獻回顧與市場需求考量，將消費權價值定義為「住宅提供一系列的居住服務呈現在房價的現金價值，其中居住服務包含住宅實質屬性(面積、樓層、屋齡、鄰里環境等)與權利內容(使用權)」。投資權價值則為「由於市場景氣變動而產生的潛在資本利得或損失反映於房價中的現金價值」。
利用估價與財務概念，本研究建立折現現金流量法(DCF Method)與夏普指數法(Sharpe Ratio Method)估價模型，與地上權估價方法之價格區間三種估價方法。研究結果顯示，就台灣現有市場情形，折現現金流量法相較於其他兩種方法更適合應用於實際操作上，其次為地上權估價方法之價格區間，可做為其他估價方法結果之參考。夏普指數法主要受限於模型假設與結果呈現為平均值，而降低方法的使用性。
折現現金流量法評估台灣主要縣市，由1980至2008年，持有期間由1年至20年，在不同購買時點與不同持有期間下各區域的投資權價值比例，運算結果，投資權價值比例平均值(最大值，最小值)台北市為15.13% (54.79%，-32.78%)，台北縣為12.01% (51.07%，-34.90%)，台中市為12.04% (50.42%，-21.61%)，高雄市為9.98% (52.03%，-33.09%)。雖然平均值落於12%左右，但各年度平均投資權價值比例：當景氣上漲時，為20%到50%；景氣下跌時，則為-10%到-20%。

關鍵字

住宅增值參與證券 ； 消費權價值 ； 投資權價值 ； 折現現金流量法 ； 資本資產評價模

並列摘要

Housing is a unique commodity in the economy in that it possesses the characteristics of a basic consumption good as well as an investment vehicle. According to the concept of Home Appreciation Participation Notes (HAPNs), the purpose of the study is developing the methods to decompose the housing value into consumption and investment value.
Through literature review and demand of actual market, the definition of consump¬tion value in this study is as " the cash value of providing residen¬tial housing services (area, floors, age of housing, neighborhood environment etc.) and the rights of housing (right to use). " The definition of investment value is as " the cash value of potential capital gains or losses due to housing prices change in the economy."
This study established the valuation models of the discounted cash flow method and the Sharpe ratio method, and the price range of valuation methods on surface right. The results show that discounted cash flow method is more suitable than the other two for actual practice. The price range of valuation methods on surface right can be used as the reference to other valuation methods, it can also as a trade negotiation basis. Sharpe ratio method is limited by model assumptions and results presentation, while reducing the use of the method.
Using the data of the major cities and counties in Taiwan from 1980 to 2008, holding period from 1 year to 20 years, the results of the discounted cash flow method show that the average (maximum, minimum) of investment value ratio are 15.13% (54.79%，-32.78%) in Taipei City, 12.01% (51.07%，-34.90%) in Taipei County, 12.04% (50.42%，-21.61%) in Taichung City ,and 9.98% (52.03%，-33.09%) in Kaohsiung City. Although the average drop of 12%, the value of the annual average investment ratio: the ratio are 20% to 50% when the economy rises; the ratio are -10% to -20% when the economy falling. Variations of investment value ratio are result from economic fluctuation of holding period and the location features presenting in the local rents and house prices.

並列關鍵字

Home Appreciation Participation Notes (HAPNs) ； consumption value ； investment value ； DCF method ； CAPM

參考文獻

內政部地政司房地產交易價格簡訊(2009/4/1)

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張金鶚、陳明吉、鄧筱蓉(2008) ，台北市房價泡沫知多少？─房價、租金、所得之關係與狀態空間模型之應用，政大台灣房地產研究中心。

楊太樂(2009)，住宅增值參與證券：降低民眾住宅負擔新方案—一個可負擔且持續的住宅所有權之新方案，住宅學報，第18卷第1期，89-92。