本研究欲從消費者的角度來看洪災對房地產價格的影響,消費者是否願意購買有洪災風險的不動產?洪災因素如何影響消費者的行為,消費者對於洪災這件事又是如何考慮的。不動產具有異質性及不可分割性,是一個複雜的財貨,價格受到於多因素的影響,傳統採用特徵價格理論,針對不動產個別屬性進行邊際價格運算,也就是將價格函數對該特徵偏微分求得,來分析不動產價格受何種因素影響及影響程度為何。從文獻回顧可發現,國外相關研究結果分歧,國內研究數量不多,且實証結果皆發現洪災風險確實對不動產價格造成顯著的負面影響。此方法的盲點在於雖然其可以達到客觀成果,但是實務上,因為風險不確定性的存在,使得環境風險估計成為非常困難的工作。 故本研究欲透過條件價格法做為切入點,並透過問卷訪問,瞭解消費者個人對於洪災風險認知狀況與其購屋價值系統。
This thesis is focus on flood risk. How does this factor impact property value? From other researches, we can find that the findings are very different. Moreover, traditionally, researchers use hedonic price method to conduct this topic. Because hedonic price method has many limits and flaws, this research will use another method: contingent valuation survey. This thesis is focus on Taipei city in Taiwan(R.O.C), researchers use 350 questionnaires to understand how consumers see flood risk when they want to buy a new house? This survey include consumers preference, risk perception, contingent situation, current housing condition, and social-economic background. Through this method, researchers can find consumer’s willingness to pay and find how does flood risk impact property value.
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