臺灣溫室氣體減量知識累積效果評估

The Assessment of Knowledge Accumulation Effect of Greenhouse Gas Reduction in Taiwan

葉建一(Jian-Yi Ye)

指導教授 ： 李堅明 博士

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

全球暖化問題日趨嚴重的情況下、氣候變遷相關議題引起學者廣泛討論與研究，其中溫室氣體減量為氣候變遷議題中學者廣泛討論之議題，而知識累積效果亦為溫室氣體減量中必需考量之重要因素。臺灣雖已制定溫室氣體減量目標，然而，如何評估溫室氣體減量知識累積效果及推估知識累積效果實際值？確保臺灣溫室氣體減量路徑正確性？即成為本研究重要的研究課題。本研究導入聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, 2010)倡議的「減量承諾量化目標」(Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Objective, QELROs)管理，並以線性迴歸分析，推估溫室氣體減量知識累積存量效果與流量交互效果，並重新規劃最適排放時徑(time path)與「減量承諾量化目標」管理。據此，提出導入臺灣溫室氣體減量知識累積效果後之QELROs管理策略與碳預算規劃，提供政府落實溫室氣體減量目標之參考。

關鍵字

知識累積存量效果,知識累積流量交互效果,線性迴歸分析,QELROs

並列摘要

Nowadays, the situation of global warming is getting worse and worse. The issue of climate change has facilitated great interests of scholars in this field. One of the most popular issue by scholars widely discussed is the greenhouse gas reduction issue in the climate change field. And the effect of knowledge accumulation is also the important factor which is necessary to consider in the greenhouse gas reduction issue. Although, Taiwan already formulated a greenhouse gas reduction target. However, how to assess the knowledge accumulation effect of greenhouse gas reduction and estimate the actual value of knowledge accumulation effect, even make sure Taiwan’s greenhouse gas reduction path is correct that is to become an important research topic in this study.
This study was derived from the management of Quantified Emission Limitation or Reduction Objectives (QELROs) which was initiated by United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2010). Thus, this study used linear regression analysis to evaluate the actual value of flow effect and stock effect in greenhouse gas knowledge accumulation, and replanned the optimum emissions time path and the quantified emission limitation or reduction objective management. Accordingly, this study proposed the QELROs strategies which were derived from Taiwan’s actual value of knowledge accumulation effect of greenhouse gas reduction, in order to provide government some references to implement the management of the greenhouse gas reduction target.

並列關鍵字

Knowledge accumulation stock effect, Knowledge accumulation flow interaction effect, Linear regression analysis, QELROs

參考文獻

李堅明、曾瓊瑤、李叢禎(2007)，「清潔發展機制、知識累積與溫室氣體減量策略之研究」，都市與計畫，34(1)：39-56。

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