纖維素酒精已成為未來重要綠色能源科技,已成為國家追求永續能源發展(包括能源安全、經濟成長與環境保護)之重要基礎,本研究建立纖維素酒精CDM計畫之實證方法與理論模型,分析纖維素酒精CDM計畫與國家永續能源發展之關係。獲得本研究之主要成果如下:(1)引入CDM計畫,提高纖維素酒精的經濟可行性,且降低政府財務負擔;(2)CDM計畫的減碳量,與CO2排放量核配方法有關,以重量核配法之減碳效益較低,而以經濟價值核配法之減碳效益較高;(3)補貼生質酒精發展之國家能源安全成本降低之外部利益,是促進生質酒精發展的重要經濟誘因工具;(4)經濟與溫室氣體影子成本在成長階段,若能源安全成本足夠高,亦或是交易成本足夠低,政府應加強生質酒精CDM投資計畫,促進能源永續發展。
Cellulosic ethanol not only is one of the most important green energy technology in the world, but also is the key issues to achieve sustainable energy development (includes energy security, economic growth, and environmental protection) for a country. This research establishes cellulosic ethanol CDM project empirical method and theoretical model to analysis the relationship between cellulosic ethanol CDM project and sustainable energy development. The main results are obtained as follows: (1)Introducing CDM project indeed can increase economic feasibility of cellulosic ethanol development; besides can reduce government’s fiscal burden to subsidy cellulosic ethanol; (2) How many CERs can be created by the CDM project are decided by the allocation rule of carbon emission from crop planting, for example, in the weight allocation rule will get less CERs, on the other hand, in the economic value allocation rule will get more CERs; (3) Subsidy external benefit of cellulosic ethanol development, i.e. reduce energy security cost due to cellulosic ethanol development, is the key economic instruments to facilitate cellulosic ethanol in the countries; (4) During the economic and shadow cost of greenhouse gas emission growth period, if energy security high enough or transaction cost of CDM project low enough, then government should enhance cellulosic ethanol CDM project promotion, which helps to achieve the purpose of sustainable energy development in the countries.