流域之颱洪災害衝擊、脆弱度與調適之特性及關聯性分析：以莫拉克颱風高屏溪流域村（里）為例

劉怡君

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流域之颱洪災害衝擊、脆弱度與調適之特性及關聯性分析：以莫拉克颱風高屏溪流域村（里）為例

A Watershed-Based Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Analysis to Risks Posed by Typhoon: A Case Study of the Villages in Kaoping River Basin Affected by Typhoon Morakot

劉怡君 , Ph.D　　Advisor：洪鴻智　　

繁體中文

莫拉克颱風；調適；衝擊；脆弱度；高屏溪流域； Typhoon Morakot ； Adaptation ； Impacts ； Vulnerability ； Kaoping River Basin

Abstract │ Reference (162) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

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Typhoon Morakot's devastating impacts reveal great challenges to the traditional approaches to both river basin management and disaster risk management. To cope with the increasing risks posed by extreme weather and climate events, the risk managers have to recognize the complex nature of disaster risk, which is usually multi-hazard, multi-disciplinary, and cross jurisdictional boundaries. Accordingly, effective strategies for disaster risk governance must be developed. Based on an integration of the risk-hazard model and the climate change impact model, this research proposes a novel methodology to assess the disaster risks posed by typhoons. Specifically, we use a multi-criteria assessment which includes multivariate analysis, spatial statistical analysis, geographic information systems and questionnaires. Using the Kaoping River Basin as a case study, we analyze different phases of Typhoon Morakot-induced risks. Firstly, we assess the pre-event vulnerability and the impacts of Typhoon Morakot at the local level. Next, we examine the key factors that influence residents’ decision-making for adaptation to typhoon related risks. Finally, we analyze the relationship among vulnerability, impacts and adaptation.
The research results show that there is an apparent spatial pattern in the local vulnerability among the upstream, midstream and downstream areas. Also, the significant indicators vary among different areas. There is a pronounced spatial clustering of Typhoon Morakot’s impacts. For example, the hotspots of landslide, bridge damage and agriculture loss are located in upstream regions, the flooding hotspots are concentrated in the midstream zones where the tributary joins, and the housing damage is mainly in the lower east downstream near the mouth of Kaoping River. Furthermore, up to 90% of residents adopted a short-term autonomous adaptation before a typhoon arrives. Conversely, less than 40% of residents adopted adaptive measures in the aftermath of typhoon-caused disasters. Those indicates, such as risk perception, disaster experience and public education for disaster risk reduction, are critical in determining personal adaptation. However, socioeconomic status and typhoon warning message do not certainly affect adaptation; rather social support and social trust have negative effects on autonomous adaptation.
The analysis results provide partial support for the correspondence among vulnerability, impacts and adaption. The findings demonstrate that the casualties and property losses caused by Typhoon Morakot are significantly affected by the context of local vulnerability, such as larger hazard-prone areas, higher elevation, more intense land uses and less adaptive capacity. It is noteworthy that neither demographic nor socioeconomic indicators, which are usually seen as key vulnerable factors, are strongly correlated with disaster losses. The findings also indicate that the local sensitivities related to biophysical and land use are positively correlated with personal adaptation, yet there is a significant negative association between personal adaptation and local demographic characteristics or local socioeconomic status. In addition, Typhoon Morakot’s losses are significantly positively related to personal adaptation. In conclusion, we suggest that guidance of risk governance should account for different areas of a river basin in order to enhance effectiveness of disaster risk reduction for future typhoons.

Reference ( 162 ) 〈TOP〉

王俊明、李心平、李鎮鍵、臧運忠、謝正倫（2010）。莫拉克颱風災害綜覽。中華防災學刊，2(1)，27-34。
連結：
白仁德、吳杰穎、賴炳樹、黃冠華（2010）。土石流災害下行動弱勢族群疏散避難決策影響因素之研究。建築與規劃學報，11(1)，35-52。
連結：
江申，謝龍生（ 2010）。綜合流域治理推動芻議。國研科技，25，47-52。
連結：
吳宜昭、陳永明、朱容練（2010）。台灣氣候變遷趨勢。國研科技，25，40-46。
連結：
吳杰穎（2009）。不同土石流潛勢區居民疏散避難決策與行為之比較。坡地防災學報，8(1)，1-14。
連結：

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