灰預測應用於台灣蔬果產地價格之分析─以愛文芒果為例

容萍

3.227.247.17，Hello！

Close
Search Quick Search Advanced Search Publication Search	Personal Service Member Login Searching History Use Bonus Card SYMSKAN
Browse Browse by University of Graduate Thesis Browse by Pinyin of Graduate Thesis Browse by Conference Proceedings Topic Browse by Conference Proceedings Publisher Browse by Pinyin of Conference Proceedings Browse by eBook Category Browse by eBook Topic Browse by eBook Publisher
Customer Services Authorize Airiti Recommend a Journal

Search Symbol (Half-width)	Description of Search Symbols
Space	"AND" indicates the intertwining of key terms used in a search
Double Quotation Marks ("") ( " " )	Double quotation marks indicate the beginning and end of a phrase, and the search will only include terms that appear in the same order of those within the quotations. Example: "image process" ： " image process "
?	Indicates a variable letter. Entering two ? will indicate two variable letters, and so on. Example: "Appl?", search results will yield apple, apply… e , appl y … ( (often used to English word searches) )
*	Indicates an unlimited number of variable letters to follow, from 1~n. Example: Enter "appl*", search results will yield apple, apples, apply, applied, application…(often used in English word searches) e , appl es , appl y , appl ied , appl ication … ( (often used to English word searches) )
AND、OR、NOT	Boolean logic combinations of key words is a skill used to expand or refine search parameters. (1) AND (1) AND: Refines search parameters (2) OR (2) OR: Expands search parameters (3) NOT: Excludes irrelevant parameters

DOI stands for Digital Object Identifier （ D igital O bject I dentifier ） ,
and is the unique identifier for objects on the internet. It can be used to create persistent link and to cite articles.

Using DOI as a persistent link

To create a persistent link, add「http://dx.doi.org/」「 http://dx.doi.org/ 」 before a DOI.
For instance, if the DOI of an article is 10.5297/ser.1201.002 , you can link persistently to the article by entering the following link in your browser: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.5297/ser.1201.002 。
The DOI link will always direct you to the most updated article page no matter how the publisher changes the document's position, avoiding errors when engaging in important research.

Cite a document with DOI

When citing references, you should also cite the DOI if the article has one. If your citation guideline does not include DOIs, you may cite the DOI link.

DOIs allow accurate citations, improve academic contents connections, and allow users to gain better experience across different platforms. Currently, there are more than 70 million DOIs registered for academic contents. If you want to understand more about DOI, please visit airiti DOI Registration （ doi.airiti.com ）。

Data Source

College of Management > In-service Master's Program, Department of Business Administration
Social Sciences > Management

Bibliography Management Tool

Related Links

Report an Issue

Purchase Single Articles

Download PDF

灰預測應用於台灣蔬果產地價格之分析─以愛文芒果為例

An Application of Grey Analysis on the Taiwan Fruits and Vegetables Farm Price with Irwin Mango As an Example

容萍 , Masters　　Advisor：張淑昭　　

繁體中文

企業資源規劃；價格預測；灰色理論；灰關聯分析； enterprise resource planning ； price forecasting ； grey theory ； the grey relational analysis

Abstract │ Reference (53) │ Times Cited (1) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

Since 2002, Taiwan joined the WTO organization, government regulation in response to the WTO Agreement, gradually opening up of agricultural imports in some countries, neighboring countries of Southeast Asia, low agricultural prices, import liberalization, the severe impact on the domestic market, Taiwan is facing a saturated market of fruits and vegetables, competition and resource constraints of multiple challenges. Recently, because of the two sides signed a framework economic cooperation agreement (ECFA), the face of fruits and vegetables import quota control, how to strengthen and deepen the early warning mechanism, the market price of supply and demand balance, predict precisely is an important work for the government. 
     This study is based grey prediction theory, citing Agriculture and Food Agency Council of Agriculture Executive Yuan  89 years to 99 years of agricultural statistics bulletin information, use"Grey relational analysis," to select a high correlation with the prices of fruits and vegetables factors, such as the planting area, area, production costs and import and export and other influencing factors, then the origin price of the grey forecast, the last use of relevant variables of the original data to construct the price of fruit and vegetable origin prediction model, the results provide the public sector as the price of agricultural policy and industry guidance early warning of reference. Attainable results are as follows: 
(A)raw data will be affected by a number of factors which are changeable, the traditional GM (1,1) model can not predict the ups and downs with the data of the significant changes, so GM(1,N) model and the extend type of GM (1,N) model is superior in producing price forecasts GM (1,1) mode. 
(B)by cross-analysis showed that the correct type of GM(1,N)model has a smaller average error, and no matter in what combination, the extend type of GM (1, N) model in the large data variable ranges of predictive value is more accuracy than those of GM (1,1) and GM(1,N)model.

Reference ( 53 ) 〈TOP〉

2.Chih-Yung Tsai, Yih-Chearing,（2004）, The Study of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of the Yield of Perennial Crop.
連結：
3.Hsu, C. I. & Wen, Y. U.（1998） Improved grey prediction models for transpacific air passenger market. Transportation Planning and Technology, 22, 2, 87-107.
連結：
4.Hsu,C.C.& Chen,C.Y.（2003）, Applicatuons of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting. Energy Conversion and Management.
連結：
5.Jurgen D. Garbrecht, Jeanne M. Schneider.（2006）, Climate forecast and prediction Product dissemination for agriculture in the United States.CSIRO Published- Crop & Pasture Science
連結：
6.Kuo, R. J. & Xue, K. C.（1999）. Fuzzy neural networks with application to sales forecasting. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 108, 123-143.
連結：

Times Cited (1) 〈TOP〉

林宜貞(2014)。應用灰預測建立茶園面積預測系統之研究。屏東科技大學農園生產系所學位論文。2014。1-0。

Altmetrics

〈TOP〉

E-mail ：

When an article is available to download, a notice will be sent to your mailbox address.

E-mail ：