太陽能的發展與趨勢之協同分析比較：以中國，美國，歐盟及台灣為例

蘇怡惠

doi:10.6844/NCKU202000987

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太陽能的發展與趨勢之協同分析比較：以中國，美國，歐盟及台灣為例

A Comparative Synergetic Analysis of Developments and Trends in Solar Energy: Case Study of China, United States, EU, and Taiwan

蘇怡惠 , Ph.D　　Advisor：吳榮華　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6844/NCKU202000987

協同理論；專利；期刊；應用研究；應用變化趨勢； Synergetics ； patents ； Journals ； Applied research ； Changing application trend

Abstract │ Reference (89) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

選擇可永續利用之潔淨發電能源，太陽能已是熱門議題，更備受國際重視。據經濟部國際貿易局統計資料得知，目前中國、美國、歐盟以及台灣太陽能產值占全球太陽能產值的七成以上，由此可見其對於太陽能未來發展走向具有一定的影響性。本研究將產官學的數據整合，並以中國、美國、歐盟以及台灣為研究範圍，研究時間為2005-2015年，運用大數據運算，具體呈現太陽能投入應用現況，以期藉由將歷年太陽能產官學軌跡做鏈結資源整合並採用協同理論，了解太陽能的應用變化趨勢，並進行相關策略建議。本研究模型產業面的主要考量為產值、太陽能上中下游專利、關鍵技術、以太陽光伏、熱能、光熱混合發電方式專利、淨出口等因素;政府面主要考量為政府研發經費、研發人力、能源密度(每一單位實質國內生產毛額所需耗用的能源消費量);學術面的主要考量為太陽能期刊發表量、關鍵技術期刊發表量、學術研究經費以及研究領域。本次研究成果發現:
就中國而言，以發電方式申請的專利公告數中最多的是太陽光伏的專利公告數，與近年期刊發表多以高傳導材料、奈米天線、多以光電應用類為主的趨勢相符，在應用研究趨勢中，研究最多的是太陽能材料，其次是染料敏化太陽能電池，再其次是薄膜太陽能電池;就美國而言，以光伏的發電方式申請核准的專利公告數最多，申請核准的關鍵技術以高傳導材料以及奈米天線最多與以光伏發電方式為主的趨勢相符，而應用研究方面，則以太陽能材料與薄膜太陽能電池，這二類的研究量最多;就歐盟而言，太陽能累積裝置量在2009年之後快速增加，在關鍵專利中，核准公告量最多的是光集中與歐盟以太陽熱能發電的專利數最多，在期刊中，以光集中為主題的期刊發表量最多，而歐盟係以太陽熱能為主要申請太陽能發電方式，彼此間的趨勢相近;就台灣而言，以中游的太陽能電池與模組表現極為亮眼，台灣以太陽光伏為主要的發電方式核准公告數最多，關鍵專利以奈米天線、高傳導材料的核准公告量最多，而關鍵技術期刊以高傳導材料、奈米天線的發表量最大，台灣主要以光伏發電為主，故四者之間的趨勢相近。在應用研究方面，以薄膜太陽能電池為最多，其次是染料敏化太陽能電池，在2013年之後，以鈣鈦礦太陽能電池為主題的期刊發表量快速增加，在2015年時為最高。
整體而言，因全球景氣持續低迷，對於太陽能電板仍有可能供過於求的預期心理，故太陽能相關產業的建議為觀望態度，謹慎選擇投資的技術或產品;就各國政府而言，未來對於太陽能的獎勵扶助政策將有趨於保守的趨勢;學術部份因擁有太陽能的研發能量(軟實力)為基礎，未來開發新的技術或改進原有技術的期刊發表增加量維持逐年成長仍指日可期，故維持樂觀態度。

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

Sustainable clean energy, such as solar energy, applied to electricity generation has become an important topic that has been drawing international attention. According to the Bureau of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Economic Affairs, the solar energy output of China, the United States, the European Union, and Taiwan accounts for over 70% of the global total, which may influence the future development of solar energy. In the present study, the main considerations from an industrial perspective include output; upstream, midstream, and downstream solar patents; key technologies; photovoltaic and thermal patents for photothermal electricity generation, and net exports. The main considerations from a government perspective include government R&D funding, R&D manpower, and energy density (energy consumption per unit of real GDP). The main considerations from an academic perspective include the publications of solar energy and key technical journals, academic research funding, and research fields. During 2005–2015, the study involved China, the United States, the European Union, and Taiwan. Industrial, governmental, and academic data were integrated to determine the -status of solar energy input and application. The integration of resources was performed by linking the industrial, governmental, and academic trajectories of solar energy over time, and synergetics was adopted to investigate the changing trend of solar energy application and propose relevant strategies and suggestions. The results are as follows.
Due to the continued downturn in the global economy, there is an expected oversupply of solar panels, and it is therefore suggested that solar energy-related industries adopt a wait-and-see attitude and make prudent investment in technologies or products. From a government perspective, the future incentive and support policies for solar energy tend to be conservative. From an academic perspective, due to the R&D capability of solar energy (soft power), it is expected that publications developing new technologies or improving existing technologies will increase on a yearly basis, and therefore, an optimistic attitude can be taken.

Reference ( 89 ) 〈TOP〉

參考文獻
[1]王慧娟(2007)，電子期刊對大學圖書館紙本期刊刪訂影響之研究，國立中興大學圖書資訊學碩士論文。
[2]李芸蕙(2011)，臺灣學術期刊數位出版調查研究─以2009年TSSCI及THCI Core選錄期刊為基礎，淡江大學資訊與圖書館學系碩士論文。
[3]江梓安；李國榮；黃怡甄(2015)，臺灣太陽能電池產業之研發績效評估與專利佈局分析，創新與經營管理學刊；6卷1期，P1–22
[4]吳小芬(2004)，《中國期刊網》和《中華民國期刊論文索引》的比較研究：以收錄圖書館學期刊為例，淡江大學資訊與圖書館學系碩士論文。

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