頁岩氣衝擊：天然氣與原油市場

林鼎翔

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頁岩氣衝擊：天然氣與原油市場

The Impact of Shale Gas：Gas versus Oil Market

林鼎翔 , Masters　　Advisor：曾憲郎　　

繁體中文

天然氣；因果關係檢定；結構性檢定；共整合檢定；石油；頁岩氣； shale gas ； gas ； oil ； Granger Test ； Co-integration Test ； Chow Test

Abstract │ Reference (28) │ Altmetrics

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In this study, Johanson co-integration test and Granger causality analysis causality and long-term effects of U.S. crude oil, gasoline and natural gas between markets. With the integration models of the British and American obtained are crude oil and natural gas as a common factor in traction and has a long-term co-integration relationships. Under the integration of long-term, by the error correction term model to determine long-term effects of the four variables, and the impact of the effect of each other, can be found in the U.S. oil market remains a two-way causal relationship between the United States affect the way the British oil and gas market.Therefore plus Chow Test to further explore the relationship between the U.S. natural gas and crude oil in the United Kingdom, whether structural changes occur, studies have shown that structural changes occur, due to the access to data taken in 2014, while the shale gas production technique caused greatly increased sharply from about 2008 onwards, so that the United States can maintain its own natural gas has gradually uniqueness. This will be future energy exporter ─ the United States, the price of natural gas in the energy output of great change.

Reference ( 28 ) 〈TOP〉

2. Asche, F., Nilsen, O.B., Tveteras, R., (2008).“Natural gas demand in the European
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3. Asche, F., Osmundsen, P., Tveter ˚as, R., (2001).” Market integration for natural gas inEurope”. International Journal of Global Energy Issues 16, 300–312.
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4. Asche, F., Oglend A. , Osmundsen, P.(2012)”Gas versus oil prices the impact of shale gas.”Energy policy 47,117–124
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5. Kao, C.-W., Wan, J.-Y., (2009). Information transmission and market interactions across The Atlantic - an empirical study on the natural gas market. Energy Economics 31, 152-161.
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6. Kanamura,T,(2009). “A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices.” Energy Economics, forthcoming.
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