台灣人口結構變遷對未來財政之衝擊

張皓鈞(Hao-Chun Chang)

指導教授 ： 林子銘

國立中央大學/管理學院/管理學院高階主管企管碩士班/碩士(2006年)

摘要

根據聯合國的定義，65歲以上的老年人口比率達7%時，就跨入高齡化社會門檻，而台灣在民國82年時就已達此水準。比率若提高到14%時，就進入高齡社會。行政院經濟建設委員會(以下簡稱經建會)預估，台灣老年人口比率將於民國107年升到14%，正式進入高齡社會。而民國115年，台灣的老年人口將達20%，屆時即進入所謂超高齡社會。根據經建會推估93年至140年中長期台灣人口中推計資料(2004)，我國高齡化的速度與日本差不多，但比歐美平均快了1倍以上。面對此波必然來到的趨勢，政府要如何妥擬人口政策以能減少人口老化對於財政的影響？台灣未來人口結構老化對於政府財政會造成如何的衝擊？正是本研究急欲探討之核心議題。
研究架構主要係將經建會93-140年中推計人口推估結果做為自變數X，將其可能對於財政支出的影響分為4個應變數，依序為財政收入的Y1綜合所得稅，財政支出的Y2教育支出、Y3醫療支出及Y4的退撫支出，研究方法擬採歷史文獻收集分析方法，屬定量分析方法，採用行政院主計處統計資料，包括人口、財政、預算等方面之歷年度之統計數據，以收集及分析整理次級資料(secondary data)為主，最後分析人口結構變遷對於未來至民國140年財政收支的影響。
在推估未來財政收支受人口結構變遷的結果，研究發現，在財政收入部分，民國110年前綜合所得稅收入尚不致有太大變化，主要係30歲至59歲的勞動人口與93年相較減少幅度不致過大與過快，但在民國110年後，因自民國82年開始的少子化效應開始顯現，使得主要納稅人口大幅減少，相對影響了如綜合所得稅的稅收，在財政支出部分，本研究找出三項受人口結構變動影響的支出，包括教育支出、醫療費用支出及退撫支出，研究發現，未來勞動人口到了民國140年將較93年額外多負擔15,675元，這也表示，未來的小孩子，將比現在的我們擔負更多的重擔。
在政策建議方面，建議政府所訂之各種公共政策計畫前應將未來人口結構因素納入考量，避免將這個世代所透支的額度，交由下一世代買單，在下一世代勞動人口明顯減少的情形下，每一個勞動人口將比現在扶養更多的老人，及償付更多的債務，政府惟一能作的，唯有杜絶浪費、鼓勵儲蓄，將有限的資源有效的分配及運用。

關鍵字

失衡 ； 人口 ； 財政收支推估 ； 預算赤字 ； 政府支出 ； 收支估測

並列摘要

According to the definitions of United Nation, any nation’s over 65 year senior reaching 7% is defined as the aged society. Taiwan has reached this level in 1993. Thus, the ratios of the aged people reach to 14% that can be totally called the aged countries. (This sentence is not clear) --- the figure is over 14%. Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) predicts senior people in Taiwan will be rose by 14% in 2018. However, senior in Taiwan will reach to 20% in 2026 and by that time Taiwan can be called super elder society. According to CEPD estimation from 2004 to 2051 predicted data of middle and long-term Taiwan’s population, Taiwan’s aged population with Japan’s makes no difference, but higher than those of western countries. Facing the coming trend, what kind of population policy does the government has to enact and how does Taiwan government deal with the impact of the coming aged society on government financial crisis? This is the main theme of this thesis.
The research adopts estimated population from the study of CEPD as the independent variables (X)，and the influences on government financial income and expenses as dependent variables (Y)，including income tax (Y1), educational expenses (Y2), health expenses (Y3) and retirement pension expenses (Y4)。This study collects historical government financial data from various sources, especially adopts previous statistics of population, financial and budget from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics。 Based on the historical model and corresponding population-government finance research model, this study calculates government financial income and expenditures from now until 2051.
The result of the study has shown the importance of two features. The first is that from the financial revenue, before 2021, tax income is quite stable. The major reason is that the total numbers of working people who are aged 30 to 59 as compared to 2004”s is roughly the same. However, after 2021, low birth rate from 1993 has caused the fewer taxpayers. Therefore, the income tax will be relatively decreasing over time after 2021. Concerning financial expenses, the three items that affect the change of population proportion include educational, health and retirement pension expenses. The finding is that the labor population in 2015 will pay more NT15, 675 dollars of income tax than in 2004. Thus, children will have more burdens in the future.

The suggestion is that the government should consider the population proportion before setting up public policies to avoid shifting financial deficit to our generation. Because of the decreasing labor population, the government can take measures in advance by avoiding waste, encouraging savings and distributing the limited resources more carefully。

並列關鍵字

government expense ； population ； estimate of revenue and expenditure ； budget deficit

參考文獻

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