紅燈右轉人車衝突風險分析

The risk analysis of right turn on red through pedestrian-vehicle confliction

游智銘(Chih-Ming Yu)

指導教授 ： 吳健生

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2006年)

摘要

我國近年已針對開放車輛紅燈右轉政策進行相關討論，故本研究目的在於分析我國實施車輛紅燈右轉政策後，何種路口行人流量或右轉車輛條件下可考慮實施車輛紅燈右轉。
本研究針對行人穿越路口與紅燈右轉車輛特性進行探討，並利用迴歸分析建構行人數量預測模式，透過潛在衝突量觀點分析不同的路口行人流量與紅燈右轉車流量之人車衝突量。經觀測結果得知，行人穿越號誌啟動後行人穿越道上之行人散佈會存在擴散現象，且行人具有高度自由性，穿越路口過程中亦存在部分行人半途進入或離開行人穿越道，故行人行為複雜而難以掌握。
根據調查行人起步延滯約為3秒且與路口累積行人數量呈現負相關；行人疏解率則與路口累積行人數量存在正相關。行人擴散速率約為每秒1.47公尺且隨著累積行人數量增加其變異越小。
本研究行人數量預測模式變數採路口兩側等候穿越累積行人數量與行人綠燈時間，行人數量預測模式調整後R2值較低但模式係數比較結果仍合乎實際行人特性。
人車衝突分析結果顯示，隨著紅燈右轉車流量增加人車衝突量亦隨之增加；當車流量大於每小時145輛車、路口總累積行人數量達30人以上，人車衝突量則會有略微明顯增加趨勢。以週期人車衝突量小於20人為限制，紅燈右轉車流量分別為每小時101、124及145輛車，其實施紅燈右轉之累積行人數量門檻值分別為40、15及10人；若週期人車衝突量小於30人，紅燈右轉車流量每小時101、124、145及155輛車時，則實施紅燈右轉之累積行人數量門檻值分別為50、40、20及20人。

關鍵字

衝突 ； 紅燈右轉

並列摘要

On recent years, the government is going on relative discussions about open the right turn on red (RTOR) policy up. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze that which amount of pedestrian flow or RTOR flow is practicable, after the enforcement of the right turn on red policy.
This research is aimed at pedestrians who walk through the intersections and the vehicles which right turn on red. It tried to construct the estimation model of pedestrian quantity by the regression analysis as well. Through the conception of potential conflict to analyze pedestrian-vehicle confliction of different pedestrian flow and RTOR flow. According to the observation, after turned the count-down pedestrian signal on, dispersion phenomenon exists in the distribution of pedestrians on the crosswalk. Pedestrians have highly freedom, some of them enter the crosswalk or leave halfway in the process of crossing the intersection. Therefore, the actions of those pedestrians is complicated and unpredictable.
According to the survey，the delay time of pedestrian is about three seconds. The delay time of pedestrian and the quantity of cumulate pedestrian at the intersection shows negative correlation while the pedestrian discharge rate and the quantity of cumulate pedestrian at the intersection exists positive correlation. The pedestrian dispersion rate is about 1.27 meter per second and with the increasing of the quantity of cumulate pedestrian the variability reduced.
The number of variables of the estimation model of pedestrian quantity adopted the quantity of cumulate pedestrian and green time of pedestrian crossing the intersection. Adjusted R2 of the estimation model of pedestrian quantity became lower but model coefficient corresponded to the tendency of the pedestrians.
The pedestrian-vehicle confliction analysis shows: with the increasing of RTOR flow，the quantity of pedestrian-vehicle confliction increased as well. When the vehicle flow surpassed 145 vehicles per hour、the total quantity of cumulate pedestrian at the intersection was over 30, the quantity of pedestrian-vehicle confliction increased apparently. Take 20 as the limitation of the quantity of cyclic pedestrian-vehicle confliction，the quantity of RTOR flow is 101、124、145 vehicles per hour. To enforce the RTOR, the threshold of quantity of cumulate pedestrian is 40、15、10 . If the quantity of cyclic pedestrian-vehicle confliction is under 30, the quantity of RTOR flow is 101、124、145、155 vehicles per hour. To enforce the RTOR, the threshold of quantity of cumulate pedestrian is 50、40、20、20 .

並列關鍵字

conflict ； RTOR ； Right turn on red

參考文獻

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