考慮流域洪災損失相關性及不確定性之洪災風險評估模型建立之研究

Develop of Flood Loss Evaluation Model Considering Basins Flood Loss Correlation and Uncertainty

林志瑋(Chih-Wei Lin)

指導教授 ： 蔣偉寧 ； 許文科

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2007年)

摘要

由於台灣的地理位置特殊為天然災害頻傳的地區，尤其在夏季颱風、梅雨季節時常常發生洪水災害。因此，如何考慮流域與流域之間的相關性，並利用這些相關性來計算洪水災害所造成的損失便是我們所重視的課題了。
本研究之目的即在分析歷年降雨資料，利用不同之降雨資料區分為颱風型及非颱風型，建立出不同之相關性隨機變數，並經由研究驗證此相關性隨機變數之可靠度，足以代表流域間之相關性。利用此相關性隨機變數計算出流域間發生洪災事件時之累積損失及年事件最大損失，以建立出累計損失超越或然率（Aggregate Loss Exceeding Probability，AEP）以及損失發生超越或然率（Occurrence Loss Exceeding Probability，OEP），以利風險保險公司等等在於制訂保單保費等之參考。

關鍵字

相關性隨機變數 ； 洪水損失評估模式

並列摘要

Because of the special geography location, a natural disasters happening frequently location, especially for flooded disasters as summer typhoons and plum rains arriving,how to take the relations between basins in consideration, and utilizing these relations to calculate the loss caused by flood disasters are the issues we pay much attention to.
The purpose in this research is to analysis the raining data over the years, discriminate it into typhoon type and untyphoon type using different raining data, construct different correlated random variables, and proof that the reliability of the correlated random variables is enough to present the relation between basins through this research. Utilize the correlated random variables to calculate the aggregate loss and year-events maximum loss, and it will produce Aggregate Loss Exceeding Probability(AEP) and Occurrence Loss Exceeding Probability(OEP). It benefits risky insurance companie etc. when referring to formulate the insurance policy and insurance premium etc.

並列關鍵字

Flood Loss Evaluation Model ； Correlated Random Variables

參考文獻

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[3]. Charles N. Hass, On Modeling Correlated Random Variables in Risk Assessment, Risk Analysis, Vol. 19, No. 6, 1999.

[4]. Ronald L. Iman, W. J. Conover, A Distribution-Free Approavh To Inducing Rank Correlation Among Input, COMM. STATIST.-SIMULA. COMPUTA., 11(3), 331-334, 1982.

[2]. Alfredo H-S. Ang, Wilson H. Tang, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Volume II Decision, Risk, And Reliability, 1984.

[5]. 張齡方，"住宅區淹水損失之推估"，國立台灣大學農業工程學研究所碩士論文，2000。