颱風路徑、降雨及水位之系集模擬研究： 以凡那比(2010)颱風個案為例

蘇奕叡

3.238.225.8，Hello！

Close
Search Quick Search Advanced Search Publication Search	Personal Service Member Login Searching History Use Bonus Card SYMSKAN
Browse Browse by University of Graduate Thesis Browse by Pinyin of Graduate Thesis Browse by Conference Proceedings Topic Browse by Conference Proceedings Publisher Browse by Pinyin of Conference Proceedings Browse by eBook Category Browse by eBook Topic Browse by eBook Publisher
Customer Services Authorize Airiti Recommend a Journal

Search Symbol (Half-width)	Description of Search Symbols
Space	"AND" indicates the intertwining of key terms used in a search
Double Quotation Marks ("") ( " " )	Double quotation marks indicate the beginning and end of a phrase, and the search will only include terms that appear in the same order of those within the quotations. Example: "image process" ： " image process "
?	Indicates a variable letter. Entering two ? will indicate two variable letters, and so on. Example: "Appl?", search results will yield apple, apply… e , appl y … ( (often used to English word searches) )
*	Indicates an unlimited number of variable letters to follow, from 1~n. Example: Enter "appl*", search results will yield apple, apples, apply, applied, application…(often used in English word searches) e , appl es , appl y , appl ied , appl ication … ( (often used to English word searches) )
AND、OR、NOT	Boolean logic combinations of key words is a skill used to expand or refine search parameters. (1) AND (1) AND: Refines search parameters (2) OR (2) OR: Expands search parameters (3) NOT: Excludes irrelevant parameters

DOI stands for Digital Object Identifier （ D igital O bject I dentifier ） ,
and is the unique identifier for objects on the internet. It can be used to create persistent link and to cite articles.

Using DOI as a persistent link

To create a persistent link, add「http://dx.doi.org/」「 http://dx.doi.org/ 」 before a DOI.
For instance, if the DOI of an article is 10.5297/ser.1201.002 , you can link persistently to the article by entering the following link in your browser: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.5297/ser.1201.002 。
The DOI link will always direct you to the most updated article page no matter how the publisher changes the document's position, avoiding errors when engaging in important research.

Cite a document with DOI

When citing references, you should also cite the DOI if the article has one. If your citation guideline does not include DOIs, you may cite the DOI link.

DOIs allow accurate citations, improve academic contents connections, and allow users to gain better experience across different platforms. Currently, there are more than 70 million DOIs registered for academic contents. If you want to understand more about DOI, please visit airiti DOI Registration （ doi.airiti.com ）。

Data Source

Basic & Applied Sciences > Atmospheric Science
College of Geoscience > Graduate Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Bibliography Management Tool

Related Links

Report an Issue

Search for full text in Holdings

There is no full-text available at the moment. Airiti would like to request author's authorization. I would like to provide authorization.

颱風路徑、降雨及水位之系集模擬研究：以凡那比(2010)颱風個案為例

Typhoon’s track, precipitation and water stage ensemble simulation study: Typhoon Fanapi (2010) case

蘇奕叡 , Masters　　Advisor：楊明仁　　

繁體中文

系集預報；降雨預報；水位模擬；颱風路徑； WASH123D ；高屏溪集水區； Ensemble forecast ； Precipitation forecast ； Flow stage simulation ； Typhoon track ； WASH123D ； Kao-Pin river watershed

Abstract │ Reference (21) │ Times Cited (1) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

This thesis utilized one-way coupled meteorhydrology simulation system for typhoon’s ensemble forecast to know the relationship between Typhoon’s track and precipitation and investigate what role uncertainty of precipitation does in the watershed river stage simulation. Typhoon Fanapi (2010) landfall Taiwan in September 19th and produced heavy rainfall that resulted flooding disaster in south Taiwan. Therefore, this study discusses the Kao-Pin river basin as hydrological model’s study area where the typhoon 
disaster affected.
This study uses WRF mesoscale model with four nested domain to simulated typhoon’s 72-hour track and precipitation forecast. Using variability of the physical parameters, including different cumulus, microphysics and boundary layer physical scheme, establishes the 24 members of the group ensemble. From different ensemble features, we assess the performance of its path forecast with rainfall forecast, and establish two ensemble composition：1) track ensemble：according to different paths tend to summarize the two ensemble groups and 2)physical ensemble：changing a single type physical parameter scheme to set the ensemble groups, using different combinations of ensemble set to discuss its range of uncertainty. Finally, taking each ensemble member’s rainfall forecast into WASH123D hydrological model, as  rainfall information input, to simulate the water stage forecast in the Kao-pin river watershed. Therefore, we can assess the weather patterns of precipitation forecast errors 
impact on the water stage forecast.
From the result of track ensemble, the group with better track forecast also have better rainfall and water stage forecast result. For the physical group, especially the cumulus ensemble, because of the variability of physical parameter, there are more variability between the track forecast of each ensemble members, so as in the rainfall and stage simulation result. Rainfall errors and hydrological simulation results in the watershed are closely related, so the local region can be found that the rainfall variability of ensemble forecast will be reflected in the variability of simulating water stage. From the correlation analysis, we can find that the typhoon track forecast errors will be significantly reflected in the rainfall forecast errors, and errors in the main rainfall area will be magnified. For the flow stage forecast, the ensembles with larger rainfall forecast error variance have larger stage forecast error range, and the flow stage forecast error range will be have small amplification by the rainfall error range. But for some ensemble group setting, the amplification phenomenon isn’t as obvious as others. It may be due to the lack of ensemble members in ensemble group or 
the similar error properties.

Reference ( 21 ) 〈TOP〉

Faures, J.-M., Goodrich, D.C., Woolhiser, D.A. and Sorooshian, S., 1995: Impact of small-scale rainfall variability on runoff modeling. J. Hydrol., 173, 309-326.
連結：
Hamill, Thomas M., 1999: Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 155–167.
連結：
Hsiao, L.-F., M.-J. Yang, C.-S. Lee, H.-C. Kuo, D.-S. Shih, C.-C. Tsai, C.-J. Wang, L.-Y. Chang, D. Y.-C. Chen, L. Feng, J.-S. Hong, C.-T. Fong, D.-S. Chen, T.-C. Yeh, C.-Y. Huang, W.-D. Guo, and G.-F. Lin, 2013: Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan. J. Hydrology, 506, 55–68, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.046.
連結：
Lee, C.-S., H.-Y. Ho, K.-T. Lee, Y.-C. Wang, W.-D. Kuo, Y.-C. Chen, L.-F. Hsiao, C.-H. Chen, C.-C. Chiang, M.-J. Yang and H.-C. Kuo, 2013: Assessment of sewer flooding model based on ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast. J. Hydrology, 506, 101–113, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.053.
連結：
Li, M.-H., M.-J. Yang, R.-T. Soong, H.-L. Huang, 2005: Simulating Typhoon Floods with Gauge Data and Mesoscale-Modeled Rainfall in a Mountainous Watershed. J. Hydrometeor, 6, 306–323.
連結：

Times Cited (1) 〈TOP〉

黃奕程(2015)。整合定量降雨及水文模式應用於洪水預報-以基隆河流域為例。中央大學土木工程學系學位論文。2015。1-83。

Altmetrics

〈TOP〉

E-mail ：

When an article is available to download, a notice will be sent to your mailbox address.

E-mail ：