從軍文關係探討2014年泰國軍事政變

Civil-Military Relations of Coup D'état on 2014 in Thailand

林儒謙(Ru-Qian Lin)

指導教授 ： 蔡育岱

國立中正大學/社會科學院/戰略暨國際事務研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

「統治正當性」對當今泰國政治的重要性不可言喻，從2006年軍事政變，到本次2014年軍事政變，甚至是軍方政變的聲明，都顯示出「文人政府統治正當性不足」為軍人干政的主因與動機。以民主觀點而言，2014年確認泰國重回「半民主」時期，泰國軍方勢力強大就是主要因素。因此本文的第一部分主要先介紹泰國民主的發展，包含一些軍文類型的，透過這個部份能讓讀者對軍文關係有基礎的認識。
第二部分列舉了實際的案例做為依據，解釋泰國軍方在2006年的崛起。另外泰國司法加強取締冒犯君主的行為，司法迫害時時刻刻在泰國人民生活中演，甚至遠在國外都有機會觸法。泰國公民社會的對立日益嚴重，藉由文中的一些實例可以知道，塔克辛與民粹政治在傳統菁英的認知中只有負面的意思，我們必需要了解泰國政治對立的真正主因，這與泰國皇位繼承是無關的。
本文最後部分主要探討2014年泰國軍事政變在各個層面所帶來的轉變，舉凡政治、內政、外交、及軍政府的掌權。自古以來，「軍人干政」不論是在哪種方面一直都是非常獨裁的，上至國家下至人民都無一倖免，例如軍政府鎮壓異己、人事任用、獨裁的施政、限制公民權力皆然。泰美關係也逐漸因中國的崛起而生變，許多亞洲國家並未抨擊本次的政變，美國明顯順應政治現勢而改變強硬的態度，面對西方國家排山倒海的譴責聲浪和制裁措施，泰國軍政府積極尋求中國政經的支持，我們不難發覺「政權維護」對軍政府的重要性。

關鍵字：泰國政變、軍人干政、軍文關係、半民主、帕拉育、盈拉、蒲美蓬、泰國皇位繼承、統治正當性、泰國政治

關鍵字

泰國政治 ； 統治正當性 ； 泰國皇位繼承 ； 蒲美蓬 ； 盈拉 ； 帕拉育 ； 半民主 ； 軍文關係 ； 軍人干政 ； 泰國政變

並列摘要

Political legitimacy now becomes more important than old days, from 2006 Coup, to now 2014 Coup, even announcement of coup can easily connect to intentions and reason just by military. Because of military consolidation, we got a new type of democarcy called –“Semi-Democracy” in transitions to democracy, just like Thailand in 21th coup. I will begin with the basic knowledge of democratic development of Thailand and Civil-Military Relations type in part one, so that readers can have basic concept of it.
The second part lists lots of real cases, proving Thailand's political developments since Thaksin's downfall. Lese majeste prosecutions have been a political wrangling since 2006 and always affecting and around the Thailand. Shinawatra sounds terrifying and dangerous, you will understand Thaksin and populist are always negative by middle-classes in this thesis. The most important thing we should know is to understand how the political turbulence in Thailand and the reasons of crisis of succession cause.
The last part of this thesis is mainly about the 2014 coup in each layer of path to coup, such as military junta seizing power and administration, decentralisation, executive. In all the ages, military interventions is always authoritarian no matter in which field such as, reshuffle, launched crackdowns on its critics through arrests and detentions, reduce the democratic space, freedom of expression and free universal franchise. Prayuth is less beholden to those Cold War memories and views China’s rise as more economic opportunity than strategic threat, As the erstwhile allies drift apart, China has moved to fill the gap with economic and strategic overtures aimed at countering the US in Asia, the recent sharp deterioration in ties was evident. Today most Asia countries began to realize the importance of Thailand. Some of them even aired no complaints, adroitly navigating the political currents publicly such as U.S. and China. Western countries have moved to financially constrain the NCPO as a way to put pressure on the relations between the military and the Thai public. But such sanctions have also compelled the junta to look elsewhere for the support of its legitimacy. The NCPO has made overtures to Beijing to offset the effects of sanctions from the West. Political legitimacy could have profound implications for the junta.

Keywords: Thai Coup, Military Interventions, Civil-Military Relations, Semi-Democracy, Prayuth Chan-ocha, Yingluck Shinawatra,
Bhumibol Adulyadej, Crisis of Succession, Political Legitimacy, Thai Politics

並列關鍵字

Thai Politics ； Political Legitimacy ； Crisis of Succession ； Bhumibol Adulyadej ； Yingluck Shinawatra ； Prayuth Chan-ocha ； Military Interventions ； Civil-Military Relations ； Semi-Democracy ； Thai Coup

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