屏東縣颱洪災害綜合脆弱性指標建立研究

The Study of Establish Composite Vulnerability Index for Typhoon Disaster in Pingtung County

潘宏祥(Hungh-Siang Pan)

指導教授 ： 鄒禕

國立屏東科技大學/工學院/土木工程系所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2012.00294

摘要

本研究旨在建立屏東縣颱洪災害綜合脆弱性指標，以探討不同鄉鎮市間的脆弱性問題。根據文獻回顧來擬定適合評估的脆弱性因子，並以層級分析法設計專家問卷，以得到因子間的權重數值。此分析架構採用四個評估層級，在層級一為屏東縣颱洪災害脆弱性指標，層級二包含：暴露量、應變能力、復原能力、環境條件等，層級三中包含11項評估項目，層級四為33項脆弱性因子。將因子依權重排序相互重要程度，篩選適合評估的脆弱性因子。研究結果，篩選出十項脆弱性因子分別為：人口數、未滿14歲、65歲以上、戶數、身心障礙人士、獨居老人、地方行政預算、消防人力、淹水潛勢面積及地層下陷等。將其區分為正向性與負向性後，將各鄉鎮市脆弱性因子權重加總，得到鄉鎮市個別的綜合脆弱性指標。
本研究綜合脆弱性指標排序最為脆弱的前六名鄉鎮市，其第一名為東港鎮(－0.428)，其次則為第二名林邊鄉(－0.421)，再者為第三名屏東市(－0.348)及第四名新園鄉(－0.275)，接續則為第五名佳冬鄉(－0.228)及第六名車城鄉(－0.208)。藉由屏東縣颱洪災害歷史地圖得知，僅屏東市非淹水易致災區域。因此本研究分析結果與實際現況大致相符。

關鍵字

颱洪災害 ； 脆弱性因子 ； 層級分析法 ； 綜合脆弱性指標

並列摘要

This study aimed to establish a composite vulnerability index of typhoon disasters in Pingtung County, and to investigate different vulnerability among townships. The vulnerability factors screening assessment was based on the literature review, and a Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) expert questionnaires was designed to get the weighted value of each factor. This AHP framework have four assessment levels, the first-level is composite vulnerability index of typhoon disasters, the second-level contains: exposure, adaptability, resilience, environmental conditions, the third-level contains eleven assessment items, the fourth-level contains 33 vulnerability factors. According to the mutual importance of each weighted vulnerability factors to screen out suitable factors for further analysis. The results selected ten vulnerability factors which are population, age less than 14 years, people age over 65 years, number of households, handicapped persons, elderly people living alone, local administration budgets, man power of firefighters, flood disasters sensitive areas, land subsidence. Finally, composite vulnerability index of each townships was obtained by summing the weighted value of those ten vulnerability factors.
The results show that the highest vulnerable township is Donggang Town (東港鎮) (－0.428), the second vulnerable township is Linbian Township (林邊鄉) (－0.421), followed by the third place is Pingtung City (屏東市) (－0.348), the fourth place is Hsinyuan Township (新園鄉) (－0.275) , the fivth place is Jiadong Township (佳冬鄉) (－0.228) and the sixth place is Checheng Township (車城鄉)(－0.208).
Learned from the historical events of typhoon disaster in Pingtung County, the top six of the townships and cities of this study, only Pingtung City is not within the high-frequency hazard areas. Therefore, the results of this study and the actual current situation is broadly in line.

並列關鍵字

Typhoon Disaster ； Vulnerability factor ； Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Composite vulnerability index

參考文獻

14.國立屏東科技大學災害防救科技研究中心，2005，屏東縣0612豪雨水災災因勘查報告書。

15.國立屏東科技大學災害防救科技研究中心，2006，屏東縣碧利斯颱風災因勘查報告書。

6.蕭煥彰，2008，鄉鎮市區水災脆弱性評估模式之研究，華岡地理學報 第二十一期: 1-18。

11.何謹余，2003，坡地社區防災管理能力評估指標之研究，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所碩士論文，台南。

2.李欣輯、楊惠萱、廖楷民、蕭代基，2010，水災社會脆弱性指標之建立，建築與規劃學報(民國99 年)第十卷第三期 第 163-182 頁。