經濟環境變動與人力政策對募兵制的影響-以志願役士兵為例

The Influence of Economic Environment Changes and Human Resource Policy on Volunteer Force Policy-Taking the Volunteer Soldiers as Example

陳原裕(Yuan-yu Chen)

指導教授 ： 張阜民

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

軍隊為國家生存發展不可或缺的一個重要角色。軍隊的建立與維持，國家必須提供資源，軍隊方能充分發揮力量，並維護與支持社會經濟發展。我國徵兵制度已施行70餘年，隨著國內經濟快速成長與社會型態的改變，即將逐步變革為役期長、專業能力佳的募兵制。但目前國防預算因受限國家整體資源運用與健全財政考量，成長幅度有限，人口出生率也因少子化影響，大幅下滑。因此在國家資源有限及人口結構改變的情況下，募兵制能否順利實施，為目前值得研究的議題。
本研究以系統動態學建構一個符合真實狀況的募兵制運行動態模式，藉以觀察在人力政策與經濟環境變動下，志願役士兵人力供給及國防預算之影響。模擬結果發現：（1）國內出生率降低將造成軍事人力供給不足，直接影響募兵制推行。（2）經濟景氣的盛衰同樣影響軍事人力供給多寡。（3）人員維持費在募兵制推動後，將逐步攀升，間接影響作業維持費及軍事投資在國防預算中的比例，造成預算排擠效應。

關鍵字

經濟環境 ； 人口政策 ； 募兵制 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

The army plays an important role for the country. To maintain the army, the country has to provide the resources to establish and maintain the strength of army. Mandatory military service has been carried out more than 70 years. Along with the domestic economy fast growth with the social state''s change, soon gradually transforms the use for the service time long, the specialized ability good Volunteer force Policy. But because our country defense budget is limited the national overall resources utilization and the perfect financial consideration, the growth scope is limited, the proportion of births to population is big drop, because of the affected by low birth rate. Therefore is restricted in the national resources to be limited and the population structure change, whether does the Volunteer force Policy implement smoothly, affects my national defense safely great really, is worth the subject which for at present studies.
This research constructs one by the System Dynamics to conform to the real condition Volunteer force Policy movement dynamic pattern, observes under the manpower policy and the economic environment change to the wish service soldier manpower supplies and influence of the defense budget. Result discovery: (1) the domestic birth rate is going to reduce will cause the military manpower supplies to be insufficient, immediate influence Volunteer force Policy carrying out. (2) economical booming rise and fall similar influence military manpower supplies how much. (3) personnel maintenance cost after Volunteer force Policy impetus, will climb gradually, the indirect influence work maintenance cost and the military investment in defense budget''s proportion, cause the budget to push aside the effect.

並列關鍵字

economic environment ； populatio ； system dynamics ； volunteer force policy

參考文獻

10、李柏英（2002），評價歷程的理論與測量：探討價值觀與情境關聯的新取向。應用心理研究，14期，79-116。

30、鄭柏壎、林家五（2000），差序格局與華人組織行為-台灣大型民營企業的初步研究，中央研究院民族學研究所集刊，86 期，29-72。

6、余朝權（1995），管理人員工作價值與其前項變因之研究-採生涯觀點，東吳經濟商學學報，16 期，1-30。

1、Forrest, J.W.（1961）, Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass.：The MIT Press.Clark, T. D. and Lawson, K.（1984）,“The Rotation and Assignment of Imbalance Air Force Specialties: A Policy Analysis Model”, Simulation. 41-48.

3、Judge, T. A. & Bretz, R. D（1992）,Effects of Work Values on Job Choice Decision. Journal of Applied Psychology, 77(3), 261-271.