應用灰色理論預測國際筆記型電腦市場發展趨勢

An Application of Grey Prediction Theory on the Development of International Notebook Industry

洪裕誠(Yu-cheng Hung)

指導教授 ： 洪伯毅 ； 龔昶元

朝陽科技大學/人文暨社會學院/應用英語系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

摘要
台灣的筆記型電腦工業已經開發超過十年，在全球的筆記型產業扮演著一個重要角色，不僅如此，從2000年開始就有超過50%市場佔有率。在先前的筆記型電腦都是為了商業人士基本需求所設計的，像是寫文件，上網等等。再來的筆記型電腦則是強調多媒體的功能，而最近是筆記型電腦公司所推出讓大家所注目的新產品，迷你筆記型電腦。
這項研究是利用灰色理論少數據小樣本的特性來預測，利用GM (1,1)的四期預測分析2004到2007的資料，來預測2008到2013的銷售數量，分析這些預測的結果，主要是給筆記型電腦公司建議。
這個研究主要是用GM (1,1) 模型，來預測台灣的筆記型電腦，預測的結果準確度也超過90%以上，符合灰色理論的所強調，少量資料跟訊息優先性的特性。因此，這也證明了用灰色預測來證明未來的筆記型電腦趨勢是有實用性的，這也可以讓筆記型電腦公司準備行銷策略。

關鍵字

筆記型電腦業 ； 灰色預測 ； GM (1 ； 灰色理論 ； 迷你筆記型電腦 ； 1)

並列摘要

ABSTRACT
The notebook computer industry in Taiwan has been developing for over ten years and plays an important status in globally notebook computer industry. It has accounted for over 50 percent of notebook market share in the whole world since 2000. The former notebook computer was designed to those businessmen who require the basic function of writing document, surfing the website and so on. Nowadays, the notebook computer is emphasizing its multimedia, video and the other related function. In addition, there is a new product call Netbook, it is a new business to development.
This study is to utilize grey theory''s feature of being able to make predictions on the basis of scanty data and a small sample. The GM (1,1) four points prediction model was used in conjunction with 2004 to 2007 to predict development trends for from 2008 to 2013. Analysis of these predictions was used to make recommendations for notebook companies.
Researcher performs grey prediction GM (1,1) model to forecast the notebook computer industry in Taiwan. As a result, its forecasting result''s precision reaches above 90%. It conforms to the grey theory characteristic of emphasizing less data sample and priority of new information. Also, it proves that grey prediction was used for the coming tendency of notebook computer industry is effectively and refers to notebook computer company for preparing the marketing strategy.

並列關鍵字

Netbook ； Grey Prediction ； Grey Theory ； GM (1 ； Notebook Computer Industry ； 1)

參考文獻

萬國軒、陳啟斌、黃曉令與韓季霖 (2003）。臺灣地區外科醫師人力供需之研究－灰色預測模式之應用。元培學報， 10，49-63 。

Shyu, H. J. (2006). A Study of the Performance Evaluation of NB Industry by Data Envelopment Analysis. Master Dissertation, Chaoyang University of Technology.

Chen, Y. Q., Chen, X. J., Huang, X. X., & Tan, X. R. (2008). Application and selection of grey model in the medical management. Journal of Grey System, 11, 193-198.

Chen, H. S., Yan, T. M., & Kung, C.Y. (2008). Application of grey prediction theory to forecast 3G mobile phone in Taiwanese market. Journal of Grey System, 11, 43-48.

Hsu, K. T., & You, M. L. (2007). Disability rate and the expenditure on long-term care services of the aged in Taiwan － an application of GM(1,1) in the compound variable. Journal of Grey System, 10, 147-158.