應用灰色理論預測國際筆記型電腦市場發展趨勢

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應用灰色理論預測國際筆記型電腦市場發展趨勢

An Application of Grey Prediction Theory on the Development of International Notebook Industry

洪裕誠 , Masters　　Advisor：洪伯毅;龔昶元　　

英文

筆記型電腦業；灰色預測； GM (1 ；灰色理論；迷你筆記型電腦； 1) ； Netbook ； Grey Prediction ； Grey Theory ； GM (1 ； Notebook Computer Industry ； 1)

Abstract │ Reference (48) │ Times Cited (3) │ Altmetrics

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ABSTRACT
The notebook computer industry in Taiwan has been developing for over ten years and plays an important status in globally notebook computer industry. It has accounted for over 50 percent of notebook market share in the whole world since 2000. The former notebook computer was designed to those businessmen who require the basic function of writing document, surfing the website and so on. Nowadays, the notebook computer is emphasizing its multimedia, video and the other related function. In addition, there is a new product call Netbook, it is a new business to development.
This study is to utilize grey theory&amp;apos;&amp;apos;s feature of being able to make predictions on the basis of scanty data and a small sample. The GM (1,1) four points prediction model was used in conjunction with 2004 to 2007 to predict development trends for from 2008 to 2013. Analysis of these predictions was used to make recommendations for notebook companies.
Researcher performs grey prediction GM (1,1) model to forecast the notebook computer industry in Taiwan. As a result, its forecasting result&amp;apos;&amp;apos;s precision reaches above 90%. It conforms to the grey theory characteristic of emphasizing less data sample and priority of new information. Also, it proves that grey prediction was used for the coming tendency of notebook computer industry is effectively and refers to notebook computer company for preparing the marketing strategy.

Reference ( 48 ) 〈TOP〉

Archer, B.H. (1980). Forecasting demand: Quantitative and intuitive techniques.
連結：
Bohen, C. (2009). Mini notebooks proliferate in 2009. TWICE: This Week in Consumer Electronics, 24(1), 12-110.
連結：
Chan, Y.M. (1993). Forecasting tourism: a sine wave time series regression approach. Journal of Travel Research, 32, 58-60.
連結：
Chu, F.L. (1998). Forecasting tourism: a combined approach. Tourism Management, 19 (6), 515-520.
連結：
Chen, Y. Q., Chen, X. J., Huang, X. X., & Tan, X. R. (2008). Application and selection of grey model in the medical management. Journal of Grey System, 11, 193-198.
連結：

Times Cited (3) 〈TOP〉

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