來台旅客住宿需求預測之研究--灰色預測方法之應用

The study on hotel demand of visitors in Taiwan-Application of Grey Prediction Method

張貴森(Kuei-Sen Chang)

指導教授 ： 陳宗玄

朝陽科技大學/產碩專班/旅館經營產業碩士專班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

廿一世紀是觀光產業蓬勃發展的世紀，在觀光人口屢創新高的同時，觀光產業也正迎向新的發展階段。跟隨著觀光產業的成長，觀光產業也成為了許多國家賺取外匯的重要來源。除了政府機構外，跟觀光產業相關的業者同樣致力於改革及創新。
　　在觀光產業中佔有重要一環的觀光旅館業，除了改變經營策略外，也積極地變更旅館的外觀或設備，甚至營建新的觀光旅館。但當大家一昧地投入時，觀光旅館業最重視的住房使用率是否也跟著上升，來台旅客的住宿需求是否都顯現於觀光旅館業上，或許是值得觀光旅館業者評估關注的問題。
　　本研究將針對來台旅客的住宿需求進行預測，預測方法將採用只需四筆數據即可進行預測建模的灰色預測理論。除了來台旅客的平均停留夜數外，亦將以各不同目的的停留夜數、觀光旅館的住房使用率及來台旅客總人數進行預測。期盼預測出的研究結果，能提供給觀光旅館業者相對的幫助。

關鍵字

灰色預測 ； 來台旅客 ； 住宿需求

並列摘要

Twenty-first century is the century of the tourism industry booming in tourism population highs, while the tourism industry are also Looking new stage of development. Follow the growth of the tourism industry, the tourism industry in many countries has also become an important source of foreign exchange earnings. In addition to government agencies, with the tourism industry-related industry are equally committed to reform and innovation.
　　In the tourism industry occupies an important part of the tourist hotel industry, in addition to changes in business strategy, but also actively to change the appearance of the hotel or equipment, or even build a new tourist hotel. But when we put in reimbursing, tourist hotel industry''s most important housing usage is also followed up, the accommodation needs of tourists visiting Taiwan are all manifested in the tourist hotel industry, perhaps is worth visiting hotelier assessment concerns.
　　This study will address the accommodation needs of tourists visiting Taiwan to predict, prediction methods will be used only four pen data modeling to predict the gray prediction theory. In addition to Taiwan Nights visitors average, but also will be various purposes Nights, sightseeing Accommodations utilization and total number of tourists to Taiwan to predict. Look forward to predict the findings can provide sightseeing hotelier relatively help.

並列關鍵字

accommodation needs ； visitors to Taiwan ； Prediction

參考文獻

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