創業精神與經濟指標之關聯性的實證研究─以台灣近十年之經濟指標為探討主體

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE CORRELATION AMONG ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS─BASED ON 1996~2005 TAIWANESE ECONOMIC INDICATORS

何慶煌(Ching-Hwang Hor)

指導教授 ： 林南宏

大同大學/經營設計學院/事業經營學系所/碩士(2007年)

摘要

新創事業是國家經濟的活水，係保持經濟成長、創造就業機會、社會安定及提升產業競爭的原動力，而創業精神正是這股活水的源頭。本研究依循著數據學派的研究，認係外在經濟環境的變遷，以激發創業精神的發揮，意即，由於總體經濟因素的變動，導致創業精神被激發，並引發新創立企業的後續活動。
本研究採用SPSS套裝統計軟體為時間序列分析工具，以台灣近十年(1996~2005)之經濟指標數據為探討，以新創設中小企業家數代表創業精神，並從職業選擇理論、供給面驅動因子與需求面驅動因子等面向，探討總體經濟指標與創業精神間之關聯性，及發現影響之關鍵參數與係數。另外，本研究也以2000年台灣執政政黨改變為干擾變數，探究是否存在著結構性改變，創業精神是否因政治變動而受影響。
本研究實證結果發現：國民所得、失業人口、儲蓄總額、政府稅收總額及政府消費支出等因素，與創業精神之發揮具有顯著正向關係。對於銀行放款總額與人口總數則呈現負向關係；而政治變動對於創業精神則未有顯著影響。
本研究結論：一、「職業選擇理論(Occupation Choice)」獲得具體驗證，創業精神受到外在環境經濟因素影響，基於本身主動或被迫的追求更好預期報酬的選擇。二、「財務融資的可及性（Financial Availability）」為創業精神的驅動因子，獲得具體驗證，銀行放款總額與創業精神有顯著負向相關，顯示台灣銀行體系融資機制仍處於開發中國家的水準，尚有相當改善的空間。三、「政府財政收支政策（Fiscal Capacity）」為創業精神的驅動因子，政府財政收支政策的透明度高，社會安全制度越完善者，則創業比率越高。四、「人口結構老化」為創業精神發揮的一大隱憂。五、政治變動並未影響台灣創業精神的發揮。

關鍵字

創業精神 ； 職業選擇理論 ； 總體經濟指標 ； 時間序列 ； 政治變動

並列摘要

Newly-Established Enterprises is the driving force of a national economy. It is an agent to keep an economy growing, create employment, maintain stability in the society, and increase industry competitiveness. And the root of this driving force is entrepreneurship. This study follows the idea of Rate School which thinks the external economic environment changes inspire entrepreneurship. That means when macroeconomic factors change, entrepreneurship spirit is inspired and then the activities of Newly-Established Enterprises is triggered.
This study uses SPSS statistics software as its time series analysis tool and analyzes Taiwan’s economic indicators from recent ten years (1996~2005). The study uses the number of Newly-Established Enterprises to symbolize entrepreneurship and look at the aspects of Occupation Choice, Supply side and Demand side driving factors. It also discusses the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and entrepreneurship and discovers the key influencing parameters and coefficients. Furthermore, the study treats the governing party change in 2000 as a confounding variable to see whether there is any structural changes and whether entrepreneurship is affected by political changes.
The research finds that National Income, Unemployment population, Savings number, Government tax income and Government expenditure has positive relationship with entrepreneur spirits. However, Bank Loan/Credit and total population numbers have negative effect on entrepreneurship; however, political changes have no obvious effect on entrepreneurship.
Conclusions of this study: I.“Occupation Choice theory” has gained concrete proof and entrepreneurship is influenced by external economic environment factors, and entrepreneurship is based on choice of searching for better expected return either positively or passively. II.“Financial Availability” as a driving factor of entrepreneurship has also been concretely proved. The negative relationship between Bank Loan/Credit and entrepreneurship symbolize that the financial mechanism with Taiwan’s Banking infrastructure is still on the level of developing countries and has substantial room for improvement. III.“Fiscal Capacity”is also a driving factor of entrepreneurship. The higher the visibility of governmental income and spending policy and better social security system, the higher the Newly-Established Enterprises ratio. IV.“Aging population structure”is a hidden worry to entrepreneurship and could have adverse effect in the future. V. Political changes do not affect Taiwan’s entrepreneurial spirits.

並列關鍵字

Entrepreneurship ； Occupation Choice ； Macro Economic Indicators ； Time Series ； Political Change

參考文獻

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