以灰色預測模式推估臺灣地區皮膚科專科醫師人力供需與地理分佈研究

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以灰色預測模式推估臺灣地區皮膚科專科醫師人力供需與地理分佈研究

A Grey Prediction Model Study on Dermatologist Manpower in Taiwan

葉森源 , Masters　　Advisor：洪錦墩　　

繁體中文

灰色預測GM(1，1)模式；皮膚專科；醫師人力； dermatologists ； physician manpower ； grey theory GM(1，1) model

Abstract │ Reference (60) │ Altmetrics

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Background: The supply and demand of physician human resource is one of the most important health policies since the imbalanced problem of physician human resource is getting worst. Recently, the department of health in Taiwan has adjusted the number of physicians in all specialists. The number of dermatologists drops from 35 to 18 in 2011 and to 14 in 2012. However, it is necessary to investigate whether the adjustment can meet the patients’requirement. Method: Based on the number of patients reported in the department of health and medical association, this research adopts grey theory prediction model to estimate the supply and demand of dermatologists in Taiwan in 2011 to 2015. Moreover, the geographic distribution is also taken into account. Result: The dermatologists are surplus to requirement in 2011 to 2015, and the imbalanced ratio is raised from 5% to 8.5%. As for geographic distribution, 246 districts in Taiwan, where is consisted of 368 districts, are lack of dermatology services. As a result, the problem of uneven distribution does exist in dermatologists. Conclusion: It is useful to reduce the number of training dermatologists for the superabundant problem. For the patients’ convenience to see dermatologists, the department of health should solve the uneven geographic distribution problem. Suggestion: By the means of arranging the number of training dermatologists, the department of health has effectively mitigated the superabundant problem. Next, the government should fix the uneven geographic distribution problem by setting some lures or laying down policies to guarantee the patients’ right of seeing dermatologists

Reference ( 60 ) 〈TOP〉

何明宗(2006)。臺灣地區醫師人力供需運用灰色預測模式之研究－以全臺醫師、婦產科醫師、耳鼻喉科醫師為例(碩士論文，朝陽科技大學，2006)。臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。
連結：
洪裕誠(2009)。應用灰色理論預測國際筆記型電腦市場發展趨勢。(碩士論文，朝陽科技大學。2007)。臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統。
連結：
洪錦墩(2007)。台灣地區中醫師人力現況分析及未來需求之推估。中醫藥年報 Vol.4 No.27。
連結：
洪錦墩，藍忠孚，宋文娟(2001)。台灣醫師人力研究之方法學探討。臺灣公共衛生雜誌Vol.20 No.3，183-191。
連結：
洪錦墩，藍忠孚，宋文娟(2003)。台灣地區內科醫師人力之數量與地理分佈。醫務管理期刊Vol.4 No.1，39-54。
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