運用TaiWAP評估高屏溪集水區未來情境之降雨量與降雨沖蝕指數

Evaluation of Rainfall and Rainfall Erosivity in Gao-ping Watershed for Future Scenario by Using TaiWAP Model

李明熹(Ming-Hsi Lee) ； 廖怡雯(Yi-Wen Liao) ； 郭峯豪(Feng-Hao Kuo)

《農業工程學報》 63卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 50-64

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.201712_63(4).0004

摘要

本文目的為評估高屏溪集水區在未來情境下之年平均降雨量及降雨沖蝕指數之變異情況。根據高屏溪集水區27個測站1993-2012年之雨量及氣溫資料，本研究應用氣候變遷整合評估模式(TaiWAP)及TCCIP最新發表之第五次氣候評估報告(TCCIP-AR5)的未來情境，分析產製出未來200年的年降雨量以及年降雨沖蝕指數，並繪製未來不同情境的年降雨沖蝕指數等值圖，以提供相關單位參考應用。結果顯示不同全球暖化之情境下高屏溪集水區多數雨量站之年平均降雨量及年平均降雨沖蝕指數在未來200年大多皆呈現持續上升趨勢。最後，本研究將未來情境下之降雨沖蝕指數與不同學者之降雨沖蝕指數進行比較及探討。

關鍵字

氣候變遷整合評估模式 ； 降雨量 ； 降雨沖蝕指數 ； 氣候變遷

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the variations of annual rainfall and rainfall erosivity in Gao-ping Watershed in future scenarios. Based on the rainfall and temperature dataset of 27 rainfall stations from 1993 to 2012 in Gao-ping Watershed, we applied TaiWAP model and the future scenarios of TCCIP-AR5 to generate the rainfall data and rainfall erosivity data for next 200 years. The isoerodent maps of annual rainfall erosivity in different scenarios are also drew in this paper. The results show that the annual rainfall and annual rainfall erosivity for most rainfall stations present an increasing trend in next 200 years. Finally, the rainfall erosivity in different scenarios and the rainfall erosivity in previous studies were also compared and discussed in this paper.

並列關鍵字

TaiWAP ； Rainfall ； Rainfall erosivity ； Climate change