- 期刊
冷戰時期美國總統在兩岸之間的地位維繫
National Status Maintenance of U.S. Presidents in the Cross-Strait during the Cold War
摘要
作為重要的第三方行為者，美國如何在兩岸之間構建和維繫一種地位身分？而形塑此種地位的真正原因究竟是什麼？本文從個體分析層次出發，探究冷戰時期美國總統對於兩岸威脅認知的形成，以及執政時期決策模式對於台海政策的影響。循此問題意識，本文以總統任期為分析視角，引用「地位信號」（status signaling）理論分析美國介入兩岸的領導人作用。根據美國總統上任前後的「威脅認知」來源，區分為「制度聚焦型」與「政策聚焦型」兩類型，前者關切中國內部制度問題，後者則致力轉變中國對外政策，據以檢視冷戰時期歷任美國總統在任期內人事安排和決策因素所反映的兩岸地位選擇。研究發現，總統的認知判斷大致與「中國威脅」和「兩岸狀態」有關，而又受制任期內不同階段的時間壓力。本文以「雷根政府」第一任期的運作經驗進行案例討論，期望理解在中、美互動中，基於對中國地位尋求的認知，美國領導人如何在兩岸關係中維繫其所預設的國家地位。
並列摘要
As a major third-party actor, how did the United States shape and maintain its national status in Cross-Strait relations? What is the actual motive behind shaping such national status? The questions raised have implications across both theoretical and political domains. Adopting an individual-level analysis, this study investigates U.S. leaders' threat perceptions of the Cross-Strait during the Cold War period, as well as their decision-making patterns regarding the Cross-Strait issue during their respective administrations. With this research focus, this paper adopts the perspective of presidential terms and use the "status signaling" theory as an analytical concept for U.S. intervention in Cross-Strait relations. Based on the perception of the "nature of the threat" before and after the U.S. presidents took office, this paper divides the presidents' perception of the threat from China into two types: "institution-focused" and "policy-focused." The former is concerned with the institutional problems within China, while the latter is dedicated to changing China's foreign policy. This paper examines the status signaling choices reflected in the personnel arrangements and decision-making pressures during the tenures of successive U.S. presidents during the Cold War period. The study finds that presidential perceptions are broadly related to the "China threat" and the "Cross-Strait status quo," yet constrained by time pressures at different stages within their term. This paper uses the operational experience of the first term of Reagan presidency (1981-1984) as a case study, aiming to understand how, based on perceptions of China's status-seeking, American leaders maintain their preconceived national status in Cross-Strait relations amidst U.S.-China interactions.