穩定產出水準是政府的重要政策指標之一。本文旨在浮動匯率制度下,探討政府實施產出下限目標區政策時,產出是否會產生如Krugman(1991)所提出的「蜜月效果(honeymoon effect)」,同時也探討此一政策對匯率波動的影響。本文的結果,政府實施產出下限目標區政策是否有助於產出波動穩定,端視資本移動程度的大小以及政府從事產出干預的實施方式而定。在資本移動程度大的情況下,若政府以財政政策來干預產出,則產出下限目標區的政策反而會造成產出更不穩定,但會促使匯率更加穩定。反之,若政府以貨幣供給量的調整來干預產出,則可有效的穩定產出波動,但卻會付出加大匯率波動幅度的代價。而在資本移動程度小的情況下,不論政府採行何種干預的方式,對匯率變動之影響為不確定,但對於產出則均具有安定的效果。
Stabilizing output is one of the important policies in most countries. This paper develops an open economy model under flexible exchange rate regime, and investigates whether the honeymoon effect proposed by Krugman (1991) is present when the government adopts a target zone policy on output. We find that whether the announcement by the government to defend the output target zone will reduce the volatility of output, depends on (i) the degree of capital mobility; (ii) the implementing instruments of stabilizing policies. These new findings help to enhance our understanding of target zone policy and output volatility.