COVID-19疫情對台灣表演藝術節目退票率之影響分析

Impact of COVID-19 on the Refund Rate of Taiwanese Performing Arts Industry

高竹嵐(Chu-Lan Michael Kao)

《中國統計學報》 59卷1期 (2021/03) Pp. 28-48

摘要

自2020年一月份全球COVID-19疫情爆發後，台灣表演藝術產業遭受重創，停演等因素所造成之累積票房損失上億，致使文化部推出兩階段紓困方案。然而在此上億票房損失中，有多少是與台灣本身的疫情相關？又有多少是與全球疫情所造成的台灣整體社會恐慌有關？本研究試圖透過統計中Linear State Space Model推估台灣整體社會的恐慌程度，並利用Stepwise Regression分析其與台灣以及全球疫情之相關性。研究結果顯示，若以確診人數作為一國疫情之指標，則僅有約42％的每日新增恐慌可被台灣疫情解釋，而全球疫情可解釋約64％的每日新增恐慌，顯示有大量超出疫情本身可解釋的恐慌存在。就筆者所知，此應爲首篇以統計觀點連結COVID-19與表演藝術產業之研究，亦爲首度使用Linear State Space Model於表演藝術產業研究之文章，期望本文能爲相關議題帶來新的研究觀點。

關鍵字

COVID-19 ； 表演藝術 ； 兩廳院售票系統 ； Linear State Space Model ； Stepwise Regression

並列摘要

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the early 2020, Taiwanese performing arts industry faced devastating impact, with more than 100 million NTD loss due to show cancels and others, forcing the Ministry of Culture to announce two waves of bail-out program. However, among all these loss, how much of them are directly link to the level of pandemic in Taiwan? And how much of them comes from the social panic raised from global pandemic? In this article, we use linear state space model to estimate the level of panic among Taiwanese society, and uses stepwise regression to analysis its relationship with the pandemic in Taiwan and across the globe. The result shows that, if we measure a country's level of pandemic by its number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, then only 42% of daily additional panic can be explained by the pandemic in Taiwan, and about 64% can be explained by the pandemic across the globe, showing that a great amount of panic is beyond the scope of actual pandemic level. As far as we know, this is the first statistical research that links the performing arts industry and COVID-19, and also the first research to implement linear state space model into performing arts industry. We hope that this will provide new quantitative tools for related literature.

並列關鍵字

COVID-19 ； Performing Arts ； NTCH ArtsTickets ； Linear State Space Model ； Stepwise Regression

參考文獻

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