大喜馬拉雅水資源危機與中印水戰爭風險

Crisis of the Great Himalayan Water Resources and the Sino-Indian Water War Risk

閻亢宗(Hang-Tsung Yen)

《問題與研究》 52卷4期 (2013/12) Pp. 1-31

https://doi.org/10.30390/ISC.201312_52(4).0001

摘要

大喜馬拉雅流域因全球暖化導致冰川消融，面臨河川水量下降與乾旱危機。因這些河川多係跨界，水資源匱乏引起各國間的緊張，其中尤以中共與印度兩大強權關係最受矚目。中印跨界河川源頭都在中共控制的西藏高原，中共「南水北調」工程及在布拉馬普特拉河上游築壩，讓印度深感威脅，在缺乏水資源合作及資訊分享機制下，兩國現實主義的傾向，進一步惡化既存緊張關係，也使兩國水戰爭陰影揮之不去。

關鍵字

現實主義 ； 水戰爭 ； 氣候變遷 ； 跨界河川 ； 南水北調

並列摘要

The glaciers melting of the Great Himalayan basin due to global warming has resulted in river water shortage and drought crises. As many rivers of the area are trans-boundary waters, water scarcity has aroused tension between countries. The relationships between the two powers - China and India - attract the most attention. As the sources of all shared rivers between the two countries lie on the Tibetan Plateau, which is under control of China, China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project has thus posed significant threats to India. Owing to lack of water resources cooperation and information sharing mechanisms, realistic tendencies of the two countries have exacerbated the existing tension, and the potential risk of water war between the two countries seems inevitable.

並列關鍵字

Realism ； water war ； climate change ； transboundary river ； South-to-North Water Diversion Project

參考文獻

閻亢宗(2010)。地緣政治格局下氣候變遷對亞太安全的影響。遠景基金會季刊。11(4)，97-147。

人民網─理論頻道，2012 年3 月22 日，http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/40537/17462281.html（2012/11/18）

中國評論新聞網，2011 年10 月24 日，http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1018/8/0/0/101880094.html?coluid=4&kindid=20&docid=101880094（2012/1/6）。

Agence France-Presse, July 19, 2010, http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20100719/world/himalayan-ice-shrivels-in-global-warming.318565.

Ahmed, A T Salahuddin, "Dangers from India's interlinking of rivers project," Pakistan Defence, August 14, 2005, http://www.defence.pk/forums/bangladesh-defence/63032-dangers-indias-interlinking-rivers-project.html（2012/1/6）