2012年總統選舉中的臺灣認同

鄭夙芬

doi:10.30390/ISC.201312_52(4).0004

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P101 - 132

Social Sciences > Politics

DOI： 10.30390/ISC

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2012年總統選舉中的臺灣認同

Identity in the 2012 Taiwanese Presidential Election

鄭夙芬(Su-Feng Cheng)

問題與研究； 52卷4期 (2013 / 12 / 01) ， P101 - 132

繁體中文 DOI： 10.30390/ISC.201312_52(4).0004

認同；界限設定；臺灣認同指標；總統選舉；投票抉擇； identity ； boundary setting ； Taiwan identity index ； presidential election ； vote choice

Abstract │ Reference (37) │ Times Cited (5) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

Previous studies show that identity is an important factor in voting choice in the past four Taiwanese presidential elections between 1996 and 2008. This paper aims to explore whether identity still retains its impact on voting choice in the 2012 presidential election. The author starts with the discussion on the development of the Taiwan identity. Theoretically, identity can be regarded as a type of boundary setting and its development includes three stages. The first stage is the distinction between Benshengren and Mainlander. The second stage is the Taiwan consciousness vs. Chinese consciousness. After Taiwan and China began official communications, due to the changing boundary (Taiwan vs. China), the author argues that the Taiwan identity has come to the third stage: national identity. At the third stage, the distinction between Taiwan and China includes the cultural ties and political difference. The analytic framework was suggested by ＂Measuring Identity＂: ＂the collective identity as a social category that varies along two dimensions-content and contestation.＂ The author operationalizes the content and contestation of cultural and political relationships between Taiwan and China in Taiwanese society, develops a ＂Taiwan identity＂ index (level 1-5) to explore the Typology and distribution of the Taiwan identity as well as its effect in the 2012 presidential election. The results show that although more than half (55%) of Taiwanese people have very high degree of Taiwan identity, different demographic groups have different opinions toward identity. The distribution of the Taiwan identity suggests that the content of the Taiwan identity is still in the process of contestation and has never reached any consensus. Regarding the effects of Taiwan identity index on voting choice, there is a tendency that the higher the Taiwan identity level, the probability to vote for Tsai Ing-wen increases, while the probability to vote for Ma Yin-jeou decreases. However, in general, people who report the highest level of the Taiwan identity tend to vote for Tsai Ing-wen. People who report the index score of 1-4 are more likely to support Ma Yin-jeou. From the aspect of support bases, Tsai Ingwen’s supporters are mainly those who have score 4 and 5 on the Taiwan identity index while Ma Yin-jeou is supported by the majority (degree 2, 3, and 4). The Logistic Regression models show that partisanism is still the most powerful variable in predicting voting choice, but the Taiwan identity index has additional explanatory power. In short, the result indicates that identity still plays an important role in the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election.

Reference ( 37 ) 〈TOP〉

王甫昌(2008)。族群政治議題臺灣民主化轉型中的角色。民主季刊，5(2)，89-140。
連結：
包正豪(2009)。政黨認同者等於政黨鐵票？2000-2008 總統選舉中選民投票抉擇之跨時性分析。淡江人文社會學刊，40，67-90。
連結：
吳乃德(2002)。認同衝突和政治信任：現階段臺灣族群政治的核心難題。臺灣社會學，4，75-118。
連結：
吳乃德(2005)。麵包與愛情：初探臺灣民眾認同的變動。臺灣政治學刊，9(2)，5-29。
連結：
張佑宗(2006)。選舉事件與選民的投票抉擇：以臺灣2004 年總統選舉為分析對象。東吳政治學報，22，121-159。
連結：

Times Cited ( 5 ) 〈TOP〉

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