總體審慎政策工具與臺灣房價的關係－特定目標信用工具與房市相關租稅工具的影響

On Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices in Taiwan: The Effects of Targeted Credit Policies and Housing-Related Tax Policies

陳柏如(Chen, Po-Ju)

《經濟研究》 54卷2期 (2018/07) Pp. 287-330

摘要

本文研究臺灣主管機關為管理房價而採用之總體審慎工具，包括房市相關租稅政策（即開徵特種貨物及勞務稅和調整房屋稅課徵內容）；以及特定目標信用政策（包括提高房貸風險權數、訂定貸款成數上限與貸款負擔率上限），對臺灣房價表現有何影響。本文研究發現房市相關租稅工具中，提高房屋稅稅率對臺灣實質房價有負面影響，然奢侈稅的施行影響卻不顯著。而特定目標信用工具中，貸款成數及貸款負擔率皆與臺灣實質房價間有顯著正向相關性；但提高房貸風險權數則未對房價造成顯著影響。本文研究發現不同政策工具調控臺灣房價的效果不盡相同，則主管機關在調控房價時若能考量工具效果的差異配套使用，整體效果當可更貼近央行穩定金融的政策目標。

關鍵字

貸款負擔率 ； 貸款成數 ； 房市相關租稅政策 ； 房價 ； 追蹤資料共整合關係

並列摘要

This paper reveals how macroprudential policies, including housing-related tax policies and targeted credit policies, affect housing prices in Taiwan. Policies intended to limit the growth of housing credit are categorized as ＂targeted credit policies,＂ which include the imposition of a maximum DTI ratio and a maximum LTV ratio and increasing risk weights for mortgages, while the tax policies to influence the cost of purchasing or possessing a house are categorized as ＂housing-related tax policies,＂ such as stamp duties and property tax. The results of this paper show that raising the property tax rate has a significant negative effect on housing prices, whereas the imposition of a stamp fee and increasing the risk weights for mortgages do not impact housing prices in Taiwan. Moreover, tightening targeted credit policies, including lowering the maximum LTV and DTI ratios, can cause housing prices in Taiwan to fall. The results provide evidence for differences in the effects of macroprudential policies in Taiwan and suggest that a combination of policies can promote resilience in financial market.

並列關鍵字

Debt-to-Income Ratio ； Loan-to-Value Ratio ； Housing-Related Tax Policies ； House Prices ； Panel Cointegration

參考文獻

國泰建設公司 Cathay Real Estate Development Co. Ltd. (2016)，國泰房地產指數季報 Cathay Real Estate Price Index Report Quarterly。

財政部賦稅署 Taxation Administration, Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. (2016)，特種貨物及勞務稅條例 The Specifically Selected Goods and Services Tax Act。

陳柏如 Chen, Po-Ju, (2015)，「臺灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗」“The Relationship between House Prices and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Taiwan Housing Markets”，經濟研究 Taipei Economic Inquiry，51:2, 225-256。

臺北市政府稅捐稽徵處 Taipei City Revenue Service (2016)，臺北市房屋稅稅基及稅率變革說明 History of Taipei City Housing Tax Base and Tax Rate，https://tpctax.gov.taipei/Content_List.aspx?n=463589162D3F3F8F。

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